TBO.com - TBO is Tampa Bay Online

Expert Negative On State Economy

ADVERTISEMENT

By SHANNON BEHNKEN

sbehnken@tampatrib.com

Published: February 12, 2009

TAMPA - Hank Fishkind, traditionally one of the more optimistic Florida economists, has changed his tune.

The Sunshine State won't hit the bottom of this recession until 2010 and won't see strong positive growth until 2011 or 2012, he told the Bay Area Real Estate Council on Wednesday.

This time last year, he told the group that the area was months away from the bottom of the housing downturn and that prices weren't expected to fall further.

"I was wrong," he said Wednesday. "I didn't see this financial crisis coming."

The state is in the worst recession since 1975, he said, and it won't get better overnight. The good news: Homes sales already have hit bottom, and prices, while still declining, are beginning to stabilize, he said.

That, though, is not enough to improve Florida's economy, he said.

"The thing that caused the problem is stabilizing, and everything else is going to hell," Fishkind said.

Florida, because of its reliance on tourism, can't improve until the rest of the nation does, he said.

Also, fewer people are moving to Florida. Pinellas County's population decreased by 5,738 in 2008, he said. Hillsborough County gained 7,680, but that's down from an increase of more than 30,000 in 2007.

People who would relocate here can't sell their homes up north, and many who do move are choosing other states such as North Carolina. For that, Fishkind blamed impact fees and property taxes.

This year will bring more layoffs and additional foreclosures, said Fishkind, who doesn't expect home prices to fall much further. "Prices are finally low enough," and demand is up, he said.

Moody's Economy.com predicts prices will continue to fall until at least the third quarter and possibly into 2010.

The upside of down prices is that home sales rose more in December than any month since the downturn began, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. Sales jumped 16 percent over the same period in 2007. Prices, however, fell 27 percent to a median sales price of $145,700.

Reporter Shannon Behnken can be reached at (813) 259-7804.

Share this:

Loading Comments...

Email Print

ADVERTISEMENT