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Poll: Crist, Iorio Lead Packs In Senate Race

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By CATHERINE DOLINSKI

cdolinski@tampatrib.com

Published: February 19, 2009

TALLAHASSEE - Florida voters want Charlie Crist to remain governor instead of going to the U.S. Senate, but he is a strong contender for either race, new poll results show.

Though no Democratic contenders for the Senate slot are obvious front-runners, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio leads the pack.

Crist told reporters this month that he will decide after the spring legislative session whether to run for governor in 2010 or for the Senate seat now held by Mel Martinez, who is not running for re-election. Crist likely would dominate either race given his 67 percent job approval rating, according to poll results released Wednesday by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Forty-eight percent of voters said they would vote to re-elect Crist governor, compared with 25 percent who would vote for the Democratic candidate and 27 percent who did not know whom they would vote for.

Forty-one percent said they would prefer that Crist run for governor instead of the Senate, compared with 22 percent who would prefer a Senate run. If he did run for the Senate, however, 53 percent of polled registered Republicans said they would vote for him in the primary.

"Gov. Crist has effectively frozen both the governor's race and the Senate race. All Republicans are standing back and waiting to see which office he will seek before deciding about their candidacies since no one in their right mind will want to take him on," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The pollsters surveyed 1,001 Florida voters, 433 Republicans and 367 Democrats, from Feb. 11 through Monday. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

If Crist does not run for senator, U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV, son of the former senator of the same name, becomes the Republican front-runner.

There is no clear leader among Democrats vying for the office, though the pollsters conclude that Iorio "is surprisingly well-known and well-liked." Iorio polls higher than other Democratic contenders, with 16 percent of registered Democratic respondents saying that they would have voted for her if the primary were held that day.

The poll also found that 59 percent of Florida voters support expanding legalized gambling to support education and avoid additional budget cuts.

Sixty-three percent want state lawmakers to approve the gaming compact that Crist negotiated in late 2007 with the Seminole Tribe. The deal guarantees the state at least $100 million a year in exchange for exclusive rights to offer banked card games.

The Florida Supreme Court found that Crist lacked authority to execute the compact without involving the Legislature. Lawmakers are weighing whether to ratify it in the spring.

Reporter Catherine Dolinski can be reached at (850) 222-8382.

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