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Is The Sunshine State Losing Its Glow?

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By MIKE SCHNEIDER

The Associated Press

Published: February 20, 2009

ORLANDO - Is the love affair outsiders have with Florida losing its zest?

A drop in driver's license applications from out-of-state residents certainly suggests they've cooled to the Sunshine State's charms. The number of applications from outsiders has tumbled 30 percent during the past five years, dropping from more than 585,000 in 2003 to about 410,000 in 2008, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.
New Yorkers have snubbed Florida in the largest numbers, with 34,000 fewer applicants coming from what long has been Florida's No. 1 feeder state. That's a decline of almost 50 percent. The next biggest drop came from New Jersey, with 11,000 fewer applicants.

Theories abound on why people are finding Florida less attractive. The recession. The awful housing market. Hurricanes. High insurance costs. Battered retirement funds. And, perhaps, the end of the "9/11 effect," which demographer Jan Vink said caused more people to move from New York to Florida after the attacks in 2001. That migration spike peaked in 2005, but Vink isn't sure why it tapered off.

"Were houses getting too expensive?" asked Vink, who works for Cornell University's Program on Applied Demographics in New York. "Did people start to feel nervous about the downturn in the economy?"

Florida appears to be suffering more than other states that have lured large numbers of newcomers in recent years.

United Van Lines, which issues an annual summary of where people are moving based on its shipments, said warm-weather states such as Alabama, Arizona, Nevada, the Carolinas and Texas continued to see significantly more people moving in than leaving in 2008.

Florida had roughly equal numbers of shipments entering and leaving the state last year. As recently as 2003, the moving company reported it hauled three shipments into Florida for every two that left.
Population increases traditionally have been the economic engine in this state of almost 19 million residents. Enticed by subtropical weather and relatively inexpensive housing, new Florida residents bought homes, added to the tax base and created demand for new shopping malls, schools and other development.

Though annual population growth for the past decade ranged from 2 percent to 2.5 percent, it dropped to seven-tenths of a percent in 2008. Florida now has its highest unemployment rate in 16 years - 8.1 percent in December - and one of the nation's highest home foreclosure rates. With thousands leaving the state almost as fast as others arrived, Florida's population increased by only about 127,000 last year.

For those still moving to Florida, the AP analysis found that Miami-Dade and Broward counties in South Florida remain the No. 1 and No. 2 destinations of new applicants for Florida driver's licenses, as they were five years ago.

Orange County, home of Orlando, replaced Palm Beach County as the No. 3 destination for out-of-staters.

Demographers aren't sure whether the drop in Florida transplants is temporary.

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