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Saturday AFC Playoffs Primer

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By IRA KAUFMAN

ifaufman@tampatrib.com

Published: January 3, 2009

The AFC has won eight of the last 11 Super Bowls and is generally considered the stronger conference. The NFC hasn't won the interconference season series since 1995, when Sam Wyche was coaching the Buccaneers for new owner Malcolm Glazer.

Although the defending AFC champion Patriots have been eliminated, the conference still boasts plenty of star power among the six teams vying to take the field Feb.1 at Raymond James Stadium.

The road to Tampa begins this weekend with games in San Diego and Miami, a couple of division champions who find themselves home underdogs to Indianapolis and Baltimore, respectively.

The top two seeds enter the fray next week as Tennessee and Pittsburgh open at home to take on this weekend's AFC survivors.

Here's a glance at the AFC's intriguing playoff field, featuring six clubs determined to make Tampa their getaway destination in late January.

TAMPA TIES

•If veteran QB Kerry Collins goes down next week, Titans coach Jeff Fisher could find himself turning to ex-Buc Chris Simms, who played briefly in the season finale against Indianapolis. Simms has declared himself completely recovered from the devastating spleen injury he suffered in 2006, and his resolution for the new year is a return to Raymond James Stadium on Feb. 1.

•The Steelers have taken on the personality of second-year Coach Mike Tomlin, who used to direct Tampa Bay's defensive backs. Tomlin's smoldering intensity has rubbed off on the NFL's No. 1 defense and he has worked well with legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau.

•Tony Dungy keeps making history at Indianapolis, where the former Bucs coach has led the Colts to an NFL-record sixth consecutive season with at least 12 wins. Dungy is also the first coach in league history to make the postseason 10 years in a row.

•Corey Ivy, who played four years in Tampa, is a reserve defensive back with the Ravens.

HOTTEST TEAM

The Chargers won their final four games after a 4-8 start, but the Colts haven't lost since late October, when a Monday night setback at Tennessee dropped them to 3-4. Indy has ripped off nine consecutive victories, and MVP quarterback Peyton Manning has been sharp since his early-season doldrums caused by offseason knee surgery.

BEST COACHING STAFF

Fisher has surrounded himself with studs in Nashville, where long-time defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is considered one of the league's premier assistants. Offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger returned to Tennessee after a three-year absence and immediately established the Titans' persona: a physical, no-frills attack that will grind you down.

BEST OFFENSE

Led by NFL passing leader Philip Rivers, the Chargers have put up huge numbers down the stretch. After burning the Bucs for 41 points on the road, they hung 52 on Denver in a lopsided showdown for the AFC West title. San Diego's offensive line is giving Rivers ample time to go through his progressions and he boasts big-time targets in TE Antonio Gates and WR Vincent Jackson.

BEST DEFENSE

Give Pittsburgh a slight edge on Baltimore. LBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley combined for 27.5 sacks coming off the edges in LeBeau's aggressive 3-4 alignment, and Pro Bowl SS Troy Polamalu is an intimidating presence over the middle.

BEST STORY LINE

Coming off a 1-15 season, Dolphins owner Wayne Huizenga reached out to Bill Parcells and gave him a shiny new shopping cart. Parcells plucked Tony Sparano off the Dallas staff, signed Chad Pennington from the scrap heap and kept insisting that this distressed franchise could turn it around quickly.

Many Miami fans would have gladly settled for 8-8, but instead the Dolphins joined the 1999 Colts as the second team in league annals to improve by 10 games. Pennington earned Comeback Player of the Year honors after directing an offense that committed only 13 giveaways.

RANKING THE QUARTERBACKS

•Peyton Manning: While Rivers threw more TD passes and fewer interceptions, it was Manning who would not let Indy quit, despite being saddled with the AFC's least-productive ground game.

•Philip Rivers: Tied Drew Brees of New Orleans by throwing for 34 TDs and led the NFL by averaging 8.39 yards per pass attempt. Tonight's matchup against Manning in San Diego should provide riveting theater.

•Chad Pennington: Was picked off only seven times and rarely gave Miami's opponents a short field. His lack of mobility could be a problem against Baltimore's pass rush, but Pennington's decision-making has been extraordinary.

•Ben Roethlisberger: The leader of the Steelers is used to postseason pressure, and the week off will help him recover from the concussion he suffered against Cleveland. Protection issues were a problem until the last month, but Roethlisberger has been masterful all season in engineering late comebacks.

•Kerry Collins: Like Pennington, this veteran threw only seven interceptions. He has made the key completions for the run-oriented Titans and has yet to be picked off in the fourth quarter.

•Joe Flacco: First-year Coach John Harbaugh entrusted Baltimore's offense to a rookie QB, and Flacco responded with a solid season. It helps to have the AFC's No. 1 ground game and an offense that averages 37 rushing attempts.

WEEKEND ANALYSIS

Bucs G Davin Joseph breaks down this weekend's AFC matchups:

COLTS AT CHARGERS

"That Indy-SD game is going to be a good one. Both teams are hot, real hot. San Diego seems to give the Colts problems every time they play, but I'm going to go with Indy Saturday night. You have to put your trust in Peyton Manning to get the job done against a Chargers defense that is missing injured LB Shawne Merriman.

"With Bob Sanders back at safety, the Colts defense usually plays great. He seems to make a big difference in their secondary. That Indy defense is both fast and physical. I know Denver's defensive line couldn't get to Rivers last week, but this is a whole different challenge with Dwight Freeney leading the way."

RAVENS AT DOLPHINS

"I could see this being the best game of the whole weekend. These two clubs have been scrapping all year, and they both rebounded from tough seasons in 2007. I've got to give Miami a lot of credit - the AFC East is no joke, and they won the division after winning only one game last year. Going through the AFC East will prepare you for anything.

"We all know what kind of defense they play in Baltimore, with Ray Lewis leading the way. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if Miami moves the ball well enough behind Pennington and makes enough big plays to win this matchup. Either way, it should be a heck of a game Sunday afternoon and I'm looking forward to it."

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