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Bolts Face Big Playoff Climb

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By ERIK ERLENDSSON

eerlendsson@tampatrib.com

Published: January 27, 2009

TAMPA - Staring up at a summit too long might result in a dizzying and nauseating feeling.

So as the Lightning launch into the post All-Star break stretch run tonight against Montreal, it's not the top of the climb to the postseason Tampa Bay is keeping an eye on, it's the journey to get there.

With a 5-2 stretch before the four-day hiatus, the Lightning have reduced their deficit to single digits in the playoff picture, trailing No. 8 seed Carolina by nine points. The task of tracking down a playoff spot is daunting. Recent history suggests that teams on the outside of the playoff picture at the All-Star break stay on the outside; 28 of the 32 teams in the top eight in each conference the past two seasons have retained a playoff spot at the end of the season.

But that doesn't mean the task is impossible.

"Nine points is a lot, but if we keep playing the way we have and keep pushing, and taking it game by game then you never know what can happen," Lightning captain Vinny Lecavalier said.

To make it happen, however, Tampa Bay is going to have to be even better than its 9-5-1 showing in the past 15 games. With 35 games left on the schedule and a possible 70 points up for grabs, the Lightning would need 50 of those points to reach the 92-point mark, which is what the No. 8 seed has finished with twice in the shootout era. Last season Boston earned the eighth spot with 94 points.

That means the Lightning would have to close out the season on a run somewhere around 25-10 or 23-7-5 just to reach that point plateau. In other words, the Lightning needs to win roughly four of every five games.

"We got off to such a bad start that we can't go through any slumps," Tampa Bay interim coach Rick Tocchet said. "And not to look ahead, but we have to put a streak together."

The schedule to start the final stretch of the season is favorable, with nine of the first 13 games on home ice, where the Lightning have won three of four.

"Last year in Washington, I don't remember where we were, but we were considered a long shot to make the playoffs and people weren't even thinking we were on the radar," defenseman Steve Eminger said. "It's all about if you believe and at the end of the day you make it possible by winning. And that's what the focus is on, not the whole picture."

Reporter Erik Erlendsson can be reached at (813) 259-7835.

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