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Do Americans want less or more?

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By WILLIAM MARCH

wmarch@tampatrib.com

Published: July 5, 2009

TAMPA "Government is not the solution to our problem," Ronald Reagan famously said in his 1981 inaugural speech. "Government is the problem."

Those words captured the nation's mood, setting the philosophy for a generation of Republicans - lower taxes, smaller government, less regulation - and even pushing many Democrats into opposing "big government."

Today, Reagan remains the GOP's greatest hero. President Barack Obama's massive economic intervention and proposals for a national health care plan, meanwhile, seem diametrically opposed.

But do Americans still want a less-intrusive, less-activist government? Some political experts - though not all agree - say the national mood has changed.

"The evidence generally shows more support for an activist government than in the past," said Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist, citing a nationwide survey done by two major universities after the last election.

Abramowitz said the evidence suggests the public leans in Obama's direction. The American National Election Study indicated that "support for activist government is alive and well in the American public," Abramowitz concluded in a recent paper.

"What you generally find is that when there's an economic crisis, and particularly one that is blamed on a Republican president, that public support for government programs or efforts to deal with the problems tends to increase," he said in an interview.

Abramowitz compared the current era to the Great Depression, when "there was strong support for government intervention to address unemployment."

Franklin D, Roosevelt, who took office in 1933 at the height of the Depression, summed up what might be called the anti-Reagan philosophy in his inaugural address: "The nation asks for action, and action now."

Roosevelt had just unseated Herbert Hoover, a free-market, small-government advocate, and called for government intervention in the economy, agriculture and employment.

In Florida, the Republican U.S. Senate primary sums up the opposing views.

Gov. Charlie Crist endorsed Obama's stimulus package, saying it would help government meet the needs of Floridians. His opponent, former House Speaker Marco Rubio, calls it a "reckless, out-of-control expansion of government."

"Americans understand that constitutional limits on government involvement in our lives and economy are the foundation of our prosperity," Rubio said. "They understand that government has never created enduring jobs or prosperity."

But even Rubio softens his rhetoric to take note that voters are mostly approving Obama's performance and giving his program a chance.

"We all agree that when government can help, it should help," he said.

University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus said when people are suffering - whether from a crime wave, lack of access to health care or economic downturn - "That's when they want more government intervention."

Historically, she said, younger people are more likely to favor activist government.

"Older people look more for individual responsibility. Younger ones are more likely to go for the societal and governmental action."

The National Election Study asked voters to choose which of three pairs of statements concerning activist government they agreed with, such as: "The less government, the better," versus, "There are more things that government should be doing."

A 64 percent majority chose the activist government statements on two or more of the questions.

But that doesn't prove a wholesale shift to a Depression-era, activist-government mentality, said Andy Kohut, veteran pollster and director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

Kohut acknowledged there has been a change since the height of anti-government sentiment in the mid-1990s. But he said the National Election Study, done immediately after a dramatic election, exaggerated the change.

Since then, he said, polls have shown signs of a "backlash," slight declines in support for activist government and some concern about whether Obama is going too far.

In March, Kohut said, a Pew poll showed that voters - 48 percent to 40 percent - preferred "smaller government" and "fewer services" over "bigger government" and "more services." That was a significant change from the same poll question in October 2008, which showed a 42 percent to 43 percent statistical tie.

He said Americans have always been ambivalent about the role of government.

"At this time in 1981, they had confidence in Reaganomics, but were concerned he was cutting the government too deeply," he said.

Today "they're willing to go along with Obama on what they're concerned about," but are worried government is getting too big.

"There's no pronounced movement calling for more activist government without reservation," he said.

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761.

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