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U.S. misread rift, shocked by coup

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The Washington Post

Published: July 6, 2009

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras - Though the U.S. government knew for months that Honduras was on the brink of political chaos, officials underestimated how fearful the Honduran elite and the military were of ousted President Manuel Zelaya and his ally, President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela.

Rumors were buzzing in the capital that the fight between Zelaya and his conservative opponents had reached the boiling point, but diplomatic officials said the Obama administration and its embassy were surprised when soldiers actually burst into the presidential palace and removed Zelaya from power.

U.S. diplomats had been trying to broker a compromise and were speaking to both sides hours before the coup. For decades Washington has trained the Honduran military, and senior Obama administration officials say they did not think it would carry out a coup.

The overthrow, and the new Honduran government's vow to remain in power despite international condemnation, is President Barack Obama's first test in a region that had grown distant from the United States.

The crisis also pits Obama's nuanced approach to diplomacy against that of an often bellicose rival, Chavez, who has taken center stage in the showdown by threatening to overthrow the government that took over from Zelaya.

When Zelaya, 56, a wealthy rancher whose family made its fortune from timber, was elected president in 2005, he was a middle-of-the-road populist from one of Honduras's two major parties. But as his presidency progressed, he veered to the left and was in constant conflict with business groups, lawmakers from his own party, the news media and the army.

Zelaya often told crowds that Honduras needed a fundamental shift to deal with poverty so grinding that 40 percent of the population lives on $2 a day or less. Honduras is, in fact, the third-poorest country in the hemisphere, and many resent the often-painful past involvement of the United States.

In announcing his country's affiliation with a Chavez-led alliance, Zelaya told crowds that it was designed to "make Hondurans a free people." He said in joining the pact, the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas, Honduras did "not have to ask permission of any imperialists."

Those familiar with the growing crisis said that concern about Chavez by political opponents was driven by an outsize fear that Venezuela had diabolical designs on Honduras - and would have implanted Chavez's economic system and style of governance had Zelaya been allowed to carry out his referendum on whether to change the country's constitution.

"It was the same scheme Chavez had in Venezuela," said Benjamin Bogran, the new minister of industry and commerce. "Chavez considers Honduras to be inside his orbit."

Armando Sarmiento, a member of the ousted Zelaya cabinet, who is now in hiding, said that the fear of Chavez and his influence on Zelaya led to the coup. "The right wing believes the myth that President Zelaya was going to seek an extra term."

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