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Officials Plan To Make Most Of Census

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By BILLY HOUSE

bhouse@tampatrib.com

Published: March 1, 2009

WASHINGTON - Is Florida's population about to be undercounted again?

Or would that be overcounted again?

With concerns being raised about whether the federal agency responsible for the upcoming national population count will be ready to go next year, questions remain about Florida's count in the U.S. Census in 2000.

Several studies conflict on how the Census Bureau fared in counting noses in the Sunshine State that year.

But hoping to get their states as fair (or high) a count as possible in 2010, state and community officials across the nation are organizing strategies to cure what they perceive as past census defects, mostly by reaching out to population segments previously difficult to count.

Thursday in Florida, Gov. Charlie Crist announced a diverse, 45-member 2010 Sunshine Census Complete Count Committee.

"The diversity of Florida's cultures, backgrounds and experiences is quite possibly our greatest strength, and we must do all we can to ensure an accurate count of every Florida resident during the 2010 census," Crist said.

What Does It Mean?

Floridians should care for at least a couple of reasons.

The constitutionally mandated decennial census carries implications not just for how many seats in the U.S. House each state gets - and thus political clout - but also plays a role in how a state's congressional district lines and state legislative lines are drawn.

In short, the nation's 435 House seats are divided proportionately among the 50 states based on their percentages of the national population.

Additionally, the census plays a key part in federal funding for everything from highways to schools, and population-driven aid formulas can shift billions of dollars from states, counties and cities in some parts of the country to others.

The 2000 census counted about 15.9 million people in Florida and 281 million people nationwide.

That allowed Florida's U.S. House contingent to grow in 2003 by two seats, to 25, based on newly drawn district lines for the November 2002 elections.

Since then, there have been projections about which states are going to be winners or losers in congressional apportionment based on the 2010 census.

Earlier projections had Florida picking up as many as four House seats when the district lines are drawn for the November 2012 elections. But those expectations have been scaled back to one or two seats.

That's because Florida's once-dramatic population growth this decade, which saw it gain as many as 400,000 people in 2005, has just as dramatically slowed amid the national recession.

Still, Florida is certain to join other Sunbelt states such as Nevada, Texas and Arizona in picking up one or more seats. States such as New York, Michigan and Illinois are expected to lose seats.

Flare-ups about how the 2010 count will be conducted are grabbing headlines.

Last month, New Hampshire Republican Sen. Judd Gregg's withdrawal as President Barack Obama's nominee for secretary of the Department of Commerce (which includes the Census Bureau) was largely depicted caused by Gregg's differences with the administration about economic policy.

But Gregg's nomination had prompted outcries from black and Latino leaders whose communities are routinely undercounted, and who were upset that Gregg as a senator has had a record of opposing extra census funding.

In response, Obama indicated that the White House would take some control over the 2010 census.

But that outraged Republican leaders who say Obama's plan to have the next Census Bureau director report both to the Commerce secretary and White House officials is an attempt to politicize the census and is a "power grab."

White House officials have since tried to downplay the controversy, pointing out that the bureau director will continue to report to the Commerce secretary and that oversight of the census won't change. But some Republicans in Congress aren't satisfied.

In addition, there are battles over the methods of counting, given that mail-back census surveys and door-to-door visits have failed to count millions of people.

Democrats generally support using a mathematical formula known as "sampling" to extrapolate numbers for hard-to-get urban residents, some minorities, foreign immigrants, homeless and other poor people.

But Republicans insist that the Constitution requires a physical head count. And the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in 1999 that House seats could not be reapportioned from one state to another based on sampling.

There also are disagreements about such things as the inclusion of undocumented immigrants in the census. Courts have said they are part of the population and should be counted.

The disputes even boil down to whether religious missionaries living abroad should be counted by their home state, as are members of the military.

The Government Accountability Office recently reported that the Census Bureau still does not know whether its operations and systems are ready to go in 2010, and that the upcoming census is in "serious trouble."

"And with the clock ticking - we are less than 11 months away from launching the 2010 census - the Census Bureau has little time to improve its capabilities," warned Democratic U.S. Reps. Ed Towns of New York and William Lacy Clay of Missouri last month. They oversee a House committee that monitors the Census Bureau.

States Also Preparing

Meanwhile, state officials are taking steps to ensure residents know about the upcoming census.

Some states, including Florida, are participating in the Local Update of Census Addresses program.

That program allows state and local governments to review and comment on the list of addresses for housing units and other group quarters that the Census Bureau will use to deliver questionnaires.

Some advocates have testified to Congress that they think at least 1 million Latinos were not counted in 2000. Lydia Carmarillo, vice president of the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project, told a House hearing in 2007 that the undercount "resulted in the loss of at least three congressional seats during the redistricting process in states like Texas, California and Florida."

But even as they are taking steps to reach out to minorities, Florida officials looking back at the 2000 census say they can't say whether too few Floridians were counted - or too many.

They note that several studies have been undertaken since 2000. One review by the Census Monitoring Board reported that there was an undercount in Florida of about 200,000 people.

But a separate evaluation in 2004 by the Census Bureau showed Florida with an overcount of almost 102,000 residents. And unpublished estimates for the state by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research found an overcount of almost 300,000.

Reporter Billy House can be reached at (202) 662-7673.

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