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Forecasting A 'Cane's Power

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By NEIL JOHNSON

njohnson@tampatrib.com

Published: March 4, 2009

ST. PETERSBURG - Of the $50 million in federal spending on hurricane research, more goes toward better forecasts of a storm's intensity than any other area, but improvements could be slow in coming.

Improving intensity forecasts is the top priority of the National Hurricane Center as well as federal agencies from NASA to the Navy that conduct hurricane research. Representatives of those agencies are meeting at a conference in St. Petersburg through Thursday.

Forecasts of a storm's track have shown a steady improvement of about 2 percent a year. Intensity forecasts have shown little improvement.

Part of the reason is that most of the research spending had been funneled into tracking forecasts.

"For a long while not enough was put into intensity," said Bill Read, the hurricane center's director.

That has changed, according to speakers Tuesday at the hurricane conference.

Although 35 percent of the $50 million in research money goes to intensity forecasts, almost none is spent directly on track forecasting, the speakers said.

Track forecasting, however, is still improving as forecast models become more refined, said Ronald Ferek with the Office of Naval Research.

Improving forecasts of hurricane intensity has two requirements, Read said.

The first is basic research to understand the physics at work when a hurricane gains strength. Scientists do not have a good understanding about how the ocean surface and atmosphere act together in a hurricane.

The other need is to learn what information to put into models.

Read said it's difficult to get consistent instrument readings of what goes on in a hurricane when it changes intensity. Gathering that data requires a hurricane hunter flying into the storm at the same time the hurricane is changing strength.

"The data we do have doesn't give models good results," Read said.
Hurricane research may get a boost from the economic stimulus that will pump money into agencies. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will receive $830 million, some of which will go to improved weather forecasting.

NOAA, parent agency of the National Hurricane Center, has 60 days to report to Congress on how the money will be spent.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731.

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