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Handful Of Aces Makes Rays Good Bet For Long-Term Success

Tribune file photo by MICHAEL SPOONEYBARGER

James Shields might be the toughest pitcher in the Rays' deep starting rotation.

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By JOE HENDERSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: March 5, 2009

TAMPA - It wasn't exactly "stop the presses" news when the Tampa Bay Rays named James Shields to start Opening Day next month at Boston. Although I guess since this is the Web, I should say "stop the server."

Still, naming Shields was one of those small turning points for the Rays that should be noted, if only because it affirms what I suspect everyone already knew.

It means, of course, that Shields is now the official ace of the staff — for what that's worth. On this team, I suspect it's not worth much because the Rays' rotation is the deepest part of a really deep team.

On many clubs, Scott Kazmir would be the unquestioned stud.

On many clubs, Matt Garza would be the ace. Here, he's No. 3.

Andy Sonnanstine is as solid as it gets at No. 4.

And in a couple of years, we could be writing about the choice of David Price as Opening Day starter. This year, he might be the Opening Day starter in Durham. Imagine what he did after coming up last season, then picture competition for spots on a staff that is so fierce, Price might be sent down at the end of spring training.

Pitching (and defense) is why the Rays won 97 games last year, and it's why they should contend this season and for years to come.

Toughest Of The Bunch

If you had to pick a single trait of this staff, I'd say it would be tenacity, and Shields might be the toughest of the bunch. That's one reason it makes sense to put him out there amid the hoopla on Opening Day at Fenway. All the pomp and stuff on that occasion will just make him bear down more.

Shields is just coming into his own as a force. You could say the same for Kazmir, really. We all saw how frustrating Kazmir can be, with the high pitch counts and the inability to put hitters away. If he could ever consistently pitch into the seventh inning, Kazmir could be the Rays' first 20-game winner. His stuff is that good.

Our friends at Baseball Prospectus basically forecast another steady year for Shields and Kazmir, but they really seem to like Sonnanstine and Garza. Well, as we know, when Garza is on, he is borderline unhittable. And you have to love Sonnanstine's grit and the way he pitches quickly and isn't afraid to let hitters put the ball in play.

A lot of pundits figure the Rays will slip back to third in the American League East this season, behind (guess who?) the Yankees and Red Sox. Even Baseball Prospectus makes that call, predicting 92 wins and a third-place finish for the lads.

Let's put it this way, though: If they win 92 games and finish third, that's just something people will have to live with. This division is so good, it's sick. Three of the top five teams in all of baseball reside in this division – maybe the top three. It's a real possibility that the East could have three 90-win teams.

Long-Term Foundation

I'm not so sure I'm buying the Boston hype, by the way. If I had to pick a team that might slip to third, it would be the Red Sox.

They're showing some age and cracks. Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew, and David Ortiz broke down at the end of last season. Josh Beckett had nagging problems. Tim Wakefield's knuckler stopped knuckling at times. And we saw that the lineup wasn't quite so formidable when Manny Ramirez was shipped to Los Angeles.

Baseball Prospectus says the Red Sox will win 98 games and take the division by a game over the New York. We'll see.

No matter how this plays out, though, there's so much reason to like what's going on with the Rays, and it starts with pitching. When you roll those first four guys out there, and think what someone like Price will eventually be, it's easy to imagine the Rays will be in contention for a long time.

So Shields starts on Opening Day, and that's just fine. Every club needs an ace.

But it's the aces following him that make the difference between just a pretty club and a true contender.

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