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Joey Johnston's NCAA Picks

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By JOEY JOHNSTON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: March 16, 2009

Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Michigan State and Connecticut.

Pittsburgh over UConn to win it all.

That's my story, and I'm sticking to it. Unless, of course, you give me one more chance to fill out an NCAA Tournament bracket.

OK, not true. My method – sometimes successful, usually somewhat short of that – is to go with gut instinct. Too much thinking can be a bad thing when it comes to the NCAA Tournament.

So the bracket you see is what I'll ride with throughout March.

Some highlights and reasoning:

* Key first-round upsets: No. 12 Arizona over No. 5 Utah, No. 10 USC over No. 7 Boston College, No. 13 Mississippi State over No. 4 Washington (going with the hot SEC hand here), No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 Marquette, No. 10 Maryland over No. 7 California, No. 11 VCU over No. 6 UCLA, No. 10 Minnesota over No. 7 Texas, No. 12 Western Kentucky over No. 5 Illinois, No. 10 Michigan over No. 7 Clemson.

* Florida State getting to the Sweet Sixteen (beating Wisconsin and Xavier). The Seminoles will have a chip on their shoulder after becoming a No. 5 seed and being shipped to Boise, Idaho. All along, I thought they had that Sweet 16 look. Now I'm convinced.

* VCU getting to the Elite Eight. The Rams have been a favorite for a few seasons now. Anthony Grant, the former Florida assistant, does one of the nation's best coaching jobs. In a sweet irony, I like VCU over Duke in the Sweet 16 (VCU beat Duke in the 2007 first round).

* Michigan State to the Final Four. This season, March Madness ends in Detroit. Of course, Coach Tom Izzo's Spartans would love to play at Ford Field. Izzo's program has beaten the odds before. I lik e the Spartans to topped No. 1-seeded Louisville in the region final.

* Pittsburgh winning it all. Yes, we know Pittsburgh never has beaten a team seeded higher than No. 5 at the NCAA Tournament. Records, as they say, were made to be broken. The Panthers have enough toughness, enough guile and enough skill to win six straight games. And if my projections hold, it would be Pittsburgh beating UConn for a third straight time in an all-Big East final.

That's my story.

What's yours?

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