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Escalating Crisis A Deja Vu

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The Associated Press

Published: March 16, 2009

ISLAMABAD - With each image of police dragging demonstrators into vans, and each announcement of protest rallies banned, more and more Pakistanis are seeing a replay of the political turmoil that led to the end of a military government last year.

The fledgling civilian government's crackdown on opposition parties and activist lawyers behind calls for a mass protest march on the capital is hitting many of the same people targeted in a clampdown by former President Pervez Musharraf - a move that contributed to his eventual downfall.

Many activists are now comparing President Asif Ali Zardari to the retired army chief - a potentially worrying sign for Washington as it seeks a stable, friendly Pakistani leadership to tackle al-Qaida and Taliban militants near the Afghan border.

ORIGINS OF 2007 CRISIS

•Former President Pervez Musharraf's firing of the Supreme Court chief justice in 2007 sparked a protest campaign by lawyers demanding an independent judiciary.

•As the movement grew, Musharraf imposed emergency rule - rounding up opposition activists, firing dozens of judges and blacking out the independent media. Musharraf, who had seized power in a 1999 coup, said he was reacting to threats.

•The crackdown only brought more anger, and Musharraf was forced to lift emergency rule and allow the elections that brought the opposition to victory.

•Zardari has refused to reinstate a group of independent-minded judges fired by his predecessor. A Pakistani official now says the chief justice will be restored, meeting main demand of protesters.

•Many observers suspect Zardari fears the judges could challenge a pact that quashed long-standing corruption charges against him and his wife, slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

CURRENT CRISIS

The Judges

•Although the new government has restored most of the fired judges, a handful, including the deposed chief justice, remain off the bench.

•That has prompted lawyers to call for protesters to march from across the country and link up in the capital today. The lawyers plan to stage a mass sit-in in front of Parliament in Islamabad to demand an independent judiciary.

•Activists, in defiance of police, began gathering in various cities Thursday to make their way to Islamabad.

The Opposition Party

•Opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, a former premier who was allied with Zardari until shortly after Musharraf was forced to resign in August, is urging his supporters to join the lawyers' protest.

•Sharif is furious with Zardari over a court decision barring him from elected office. Last month, the Pakistan Supreme Court disqualified Sharif and his brother from elected office, over convictions dating back to an earlier chapter in Pakistan's often vindictive political history.

•Late Saturday, the government said it would seek a review of a Supreme Court decision last month that disqualified Sharif and his brother, Shahbaz, from holding elective office. Sharif says it will not stop the protests.

•Zardari compounded the crisis by dismissing the Sharifs' administration in Punjab, Pakistan's biggest and richest province.

•Sharif was prime minister twice in the 1990s, trading unfinished terms with Benazir Bhutto.

UNITED STATES' ROLE

•The U.S. supports Zardari, whose party came to power amid sympathy following the 2007 slaying of his wife, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Zardari has urged Pakistanis to back the fight against militants.

•Washington may be more wary of Sharif, who has ties to Islamists and conservative factions less in line with American goals in the region.

•Talat Masood, a political and military analyst, says the U.S. risks alienating more Pakistanis if it is seen as too close to Zardari as discontent with his government grows. Steadfast U.S. support for Musharraf only deepened widespread anti-Americanism.

•Washington worries that the crisis will further destabilize the shaky one-year-old government and prevent it from being an effective ally in the fight against insurgents in neighboring Afghanistan.

ORIGINS OF 2007 CRISIS

CURRENT CRISIS

UNITED STATES' ROLE

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