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Bay Area Population Rises As Sun Belt Migration Slows

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Staff and Wire Report

Published: March 19, 2009

TAMPA - Six of seven counties in the Tampa Bay area saw population increases from July 1, 2007, to July 1, 2008, census data released this week show. Pinellas County's population, meanwhile, declined for the fourth year in a row.

Pasco County saw the largest increase, in percentage terms, as its population rose rose from 461,502 to 471,028, or 2.1 percent. Percentage increases in the other five Bay area counties, in descending order, were: Hernando, 1.7 percent; Polk, 1.3 percent; Hillsborough, 0.9 percent; Manatee, 0.5 percent; and Sarasota, 0.3 percent.

Hillsborough's population increased for at least the eighth year in a row, from 998,948 in 2000 to 1,180,784 in 2008.

Pinellas' population dropped from 914,444 in 2007 to 910,260 in 2008, or 0.5 percent. The county's figures have dropped each year since 2004, when it hit a 21st century high of 924,338.

Statewide, 12 counties declined in population between 2007 and 2008.

National figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau show that fewer Americans are migrating to Sun Belt hot spots in Florida, Nevada and Arizona, instead staying put for now in traditional big cities. The data highlight a U.S. population somewhat locked in place by the severe housing downturn and economic recession, even before the impact of rippling job layoffs after last September's financial meltdown.

The population figures as of July 2008 show growth slowdowns in once-booming metropolitan areas such as Atlanta, Tampa, Las Vegas and Phoenix, due mostly to a rapid clip of mortgage foreclosures as well as frozen lines of credit that made it harder for out-of-staters to move in.

As a result, rust-belt metro areas such as Buffalo, N.Y., Pittsburgh and Cleveland stanched some population losses, and Boston, Los Angeles and New York saw gains. Well-to-do exurbs around Washington D.C. saw growth slowdowns as people weary of costly commutes moved closer to federal jobs in the nation's capital.

"It's the bursting of a 'migration bubble,'" said William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution think tank who analyzed the numbers. "Places that popped up in migration growth in the superheated housing markets earlier in the decade are now just as quickly losing their steam."

Despite slowing migration, the South and West continued to account for the most growth from 2007 to 2008.

Raleigh-Cary, N.C., and Austin-Round Rock, Texas, were the nation's fastest-growing metro areas, registering growth rates of 4.3 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively. Both high-tech centers, the two metros are also sites of major college campuses that helped cushion them from the housing slowdown.

Other findings:

Metros registering the biggest numerical gains were Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston. Despite housing slowdowns in 2008, Phoenix and Atlanta ranked third and fourth in growth, respectively, followed by Los Angeles. Orlando-Kissimmee, the only Florida metro area in the top 25, ranked 25th.

The New Orleans area grew 2 percent to more than 1.1 million, still lagging its pre-Hurricane Katrina level of 1.3 million. St. Bernard Parish and neighboring Orleans Parish were the nation's first and third fastest-growing counties.

The Washington, D.C., region was among the top 10 numerical gainers, due partly to federal government jobs.

Kevin Barnard of The Tampa Tribune contributed to this report.

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