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'Forecast Whiplash'

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The New York Times

Published: March 29, 2009

After a week of piling sand on top of sand on top of sand to hold back the Red River, which has risen to levels never seen before in North Dakota and Minnesota, there was cause for optimism on Saturday. The river, which had been rising last week at a rate of 3 feet a day, unexpectedly slowed down and even appeared, according to new National Weather Service predictions, to recede.

"For the time being, it has crested in Fargo," said Patrick Slattery, a National Weather Service spokesman, who warned, however, that all sorts of factors - warmer weather, ice chunks, snow predicted this week - could change the forecast once again.

"It's still in major flood, and it will be in major flood stage for several days, if not a week," Slattery said of the river. "That means the danger is not completely over, but the threat of it getting worse for the time being has slacked off."

Still, people in Fargo, who have experienced what one resident described as "forecast whiplash" with the changing predictions over several days, seemed encouraged, but also deeply skeptical. They continued their flood vigil, walking one more time over the miles of enormous dikes they have built in a few days, watching the water swell near the tops of them, and hoping their city would be spared.

"The best news we can take from this is the river has crested," Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker said.

Despite the revised forecast, officials did not back down in their efforts to fend off the floodwaters, deploying high-tech Predator drone aircraft, calling up more National Guard troops and asking residents to form neighborhood dike patrols to look for any breaches in levees.

Walaker and other officials have made it clear that they welcomed the extra help from residents to monitor the sandbag dikes hastily assembled to protect his city of 92,000 - while remaining confident that residents could make it out of town at the last minute if they have to.

The main focus for the Fargo area will be on whether the long line of levees will be able to hold up.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report. Keyword: Weather, for the latest on the flooding in North Dakota.

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