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Crist run for Senate may help Democrats

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By WILLIAM MARCH

wmarch@tampatrib.com

Published: May 12, 2009

TAMPA - Gov. Charlie Crist is expected to announce today that he is running for the U.S. Senate, a move that could start a chain of dominoes falling that might change the political color of Florida.

As other officeholders leave their seats to run to replace Crist as governor, five of Florida's six statewide offices could be open in the 2010 election: the governor's office, all three state Cabinet seats and the Senate seat.

Four of those five are Republican-held. In the current anti-GOP political climate, that gives Republicans worries about whether this reddish state could turn bluish.

"It's a great opportunity for the Democrats at a time when they're on the political rebound," said Darryl Paulson, a Republican and emeritus political scientist at the University of South Florida.

The 2010 election, and its longer-term effects, "could fundamentally change Florida's political makeup," he said.

Crist will make an announcement today, said state Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer. Insiders have expected for months he'll run for the Senate instead of re-election as governor.

Greer, a political ally of Crist, could not confirm that but said Crist "wants to serve in an office where he can affect our lives in a positive and immediate way, and I believe that right now that might be the U.S. Senate."

If he does, all three members of the state Cabinet - Democratic Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum and Republican Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson - are likely to leave their seats to run to replace Crist.

Various candidates in both parties, including several state legislators, already are lining up to run for the CFO, attorney general and agriculture seats.

GOP primary rumble?

Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio of Miami already has announced he'll run for the Senate, likely facing Crist in a GOP primary, and three Democrats have announced they will seek their party's Senate nomination.

If the Republican primary turns into a divisive moderate-versus-conservative battle, it could hurt GOP prospects in all races, Paulson said.

Sink may be the initial favorite in the governor's race, which raises a prospect that could further damage GOP control in Florida.

As governor, she would have veto power over the districting plan for U.S. House members, a plan that has been arranged to benefit Republicans.

Meanwhile, a constitutional amendment likely to be on the 2010 ballot would restrict the practice by both parties, when in control of the Legislature, of arranging both congressional and state legislative districts to benefit themselves.

The result could be a threat to the GOP majorities, Paulson said.

"The Democrats aren't likely to take control of the Legislature or congressional delegation in 2010, but they can put themselves in the position to win control in 2012 or beyond," he said.

"This has to be a real wake-up message to Republicans that they need to get their act together or find themselves on the outside looking in."

Signs of life

The Florida Democratic Party, long relegated to minority status in Florida, "has been showing signs of life in the last couple of election cycles," said University of Central Florida political scientist Aubrey Jewett, who doesn't claim any political affiliation.

In 2006, they gained a handful of legislative seats, and Sink became the first new Democratic statewide officeholder in a decade. Barack Obama in 2008 was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win in Florida since 1996.

For the year that ended March 31, the state Democratic Party out-fundraised state Republicans $30.3 million to $20.1 million, upending the GOP's longstanding fundraising advantage.

Democrats have also widened their lead in voter registration, with 42 percent of the state's 11.3 million voters, versus the Republicans' 36 percent.

High-level GOP officials said they aren't worried and that the party can hold its own.

Greer said the climate for the GOP is better in Florida than nationwide. Here, he said, Crist is viewed positively by many Democrats and independents.

"I believe we have the potential to gain influence," not lose it, he said.

Hillsborough County GOP Chairman Debbie Cox-Roush acknowledged the coming campaign "leaves us pretty wide open," but "we're seeing people rejoining the Republican Party on a daily basis. The Tea Party movement was encouraging."

Some grass-roots activists are worried, however.

"I expect a strong fight for governor that the Republican might not win," said local GOP consultant April Schiff. "Republican control could be in jeopardy if the party doesn't come together and deliver on a message."

Democrats, meanwhile, sense a shot at a turnaround.

"Crist running for Senate creates a once-in-a-generation opportunity for change in Florida," said party spokesman Eric Jotkoff. "Nothing will be the same after 2010."

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761.

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