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Race for governor seen as a toss-up

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By WILLIAM MARCH

wmarch@tampatrib.com

Published: May 17, 2009

TAMPA - Democrats are giddy over the coming race between Alex Sink and Republican Bill McCollum, their best shot in a decade at winning the governorship and ceasing to be an irrelevant minority in Florida government.

To them and many pundits, Sink seems a clear front-runner - a fresh face who won a statewide race in 2006 in her first try for public office, with the demographic edge of gender plus a business background.

The surge in Democratic voter registration and turnout that helped Barack Obama win the state has Sink backers sensing a win.

But polls and political history are more sobering.

They suggest neither candidate can claim to be the front-runner in a race that experts consider a toss-up.

They expect a hard-fought slog between an interesting newcomer and a toughened veteran, who will both raise and spend vast sums.

"Alex Sink has impressed many pundits, and right now her stock is high," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.

Florida Attorney General McCollum, meanwhile, "has not shaken his 'loser' image with the punditocracy," Sabato said.

Nonetheless, he said, "Anyone handicapping the race this early is foolhardy. I'll call it a toss-up."

State Chief Financial Officer Sink announced her candidacy last week, and McCollum is expected to announce Monday morning in Orlando.

No prominent Democrat has expressed interest in challenging Sink in a primary. Republican Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson may challenge the attorney general, but the Republican Party is seeking to persuade him to leave the field clear for McCollum.

Sink is the Democrats' first hope for a dominant candidate in years.

When she won the chief financial officer's job in 2006, Sink handily defeated former state Senate President Tom Lee of Brandon, even as Democrats lost every other statewide race on the ballot - to Gov. Charlie Crist, to McCollum for attorney general and to Charles Bronson for agriculture commissioner.

Her 53.5 percent vote total narrowly surpassed both McCollum and Crist's totals.

She was the first new Democratic statewide officeholder since Bill Nelson won the insurance commissioner's office in 1998. He's now a U.S. senator.

McCollum's career contains some downs along with the ups.

After 20 years in Congress, he lost two straight U.S. Senate races - to Nelson in 2000 and to Mel Martinez in a 2004 primary - before his 2006 win.

"Absolutely we're giddy," said Miami Democratic political consultant Derek Newton. "Democrats I've spoken with believe that she is the frontrunner. She's the party's rising star - it's inconceivable to them that she wouldn't be ahead."

But Newton said he wouldn't call Sink the front-runner, and Sink isn't claiming that either.

"We expect a very difficult race," said her spokeswoman, Tara Klimek. "But that said, she's proven her ability to have Floridians be receptive to her message. She's a dynamic person - even in her first election, Floridians were very excited about her."

The scant polling evidence available suggests a tight race, perhaps with a slight edge for McCollum.

An April poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research showed McCollum at 36 percent, Sink 35 percent, and 29 percent undecided.

A Quinnipiac University poll April 15 showed him slightly better in voter approval of their performance in office.

Sink got 33 percent approval, 22 percent disapproval and 46 percent "don't know" responses; McCollum got 48 percent approval, 18 percent disapproval and 34 percent "don't know."

The differences likely are because after his long political career and three statewide races to her one, McCollum is better known statewide.

University of Central Florida political scientist Aubrey Jewett said Sink's reputation and the political climate may give her an edge.

"In my mind, she'd be a slight favorite at the outset based on Barack Obama's win in 2008 and the huge surge in Democratic registration and turnout," he said.

But he conceded polling doesn't back that up. "It's an educated guess at this point."

Many experts attributed McCollum's losses in his 2000 and 2004 races in part to a reputation for partisanship from his high-profile involvement in the 1999 impeachment of Bill Clinton.

Jewett said McCollum probably still suffers "a little hangover from back then," but that his image has improved.

Mac Stipanovich of Tallahassee, a veteran GOP strategist and lobbyist, said the idea that Sink has a better reputation, "is purely a Tallahassee insider perspective - the fact that she's a woman, and a Democrat in high office, impresses the chattering classes.

"But to my mother in her trailer in Williston, or the retiree in Sarasota, Alex Sink has no image," he said.

Newton, the Miami Democrat, agreed that McCollum's three statewide races have clearly given him a better-known name.

"If the election were today, I'd have to say it would be a McCollum win," he said. "Fortunately, we have 18 months, and I fully expect her to win."

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