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NOAA predicts 9 to 14 tropical storms, 4 to 7 hurricanes

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: May 21, 2009

Updated: 05/21/2009 12:14 pm

TAMPA - Scientists with NOAA today said they expect the coming hurricane season to produce fewer storms than last year.

The forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for nine to 14 tropical storms with four to seven becoming hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, one to three could mushroom into a major hurricane with winds topping 111 mph.

NOAA kept its hurricane season estimate under tight wraps until the today's release because it can have a major effect on financial markets, especially commodities such as oil and citrus futures.

NOAA's forecast gives a range, unlike William Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, who predict a specific number of storms.

NOAA and the Colorado State University team do not try to predict where the storms will go or how many will strike land. Both will issue updates to their forecasts through the hurricane season, which starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30

In May 2008, NOAA's prediction was for 12 to 16 tropical storms to form, with six to nine becoming hurricanes. Of those, two were predicted to become major hurricanes with winds topping 111 mph.

By the time the 2008 season ended, the NOAA predicted range proved accurate. There were 16 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes. Five of those hurricanes reached Category 3 or higher.

In April, Gray and Klotzbach predicted the 2009 season would produce 12 tropical storms, with six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

The long-term average is for 11 tropical storms and six hurricanes, with two hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher.

Conditions in the Pacific Ocean influenced Gray and Klotzbach's forecast of a nearly normal hurricane season.

The National Climate Prediction Center this month said water temperatures in the Pacific have warmed to normal, ending a weak La Niña. The forecast models expect the normal, or neutral, conditions to linger through the rest of this year.

A La Niña causes shifts in winds blowing high in the atmosphere that can create conditions that make it easier for hurricanes to form. Seasons with a La Niña tend to have more storms.

The normal temperatures neither favor nor inhibit hurricane formation.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731.

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