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Insurgency pierces Crist's 'inevitability'

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By TOM JACKSON Tom Jackson

tjackson@tampatrib.com tjackson@tampatrib.com

Published: November 1, 2009

LAND O' LAKES - In the ebb and flow of politics, few qualities approach inevitability for power and influence. Whether wielded on behalf of a cause or a candidate, inevitability is the mother of all pre-emptive strikes.

Inevitability emboldens advocates and discourages opponents. With inevitability comes invincibility, and all that remains are collection of the spoils and negotiating the terms of surrender.

Small wonder proponents of a federal takeover of health care - though such a prospect is widely deplored - are attempting to drape it in the cape of inevitability. If opponents capitulate, the details cease to be complicated.

But as powerful as it is, inevitability can be fleeting. (See: Clinton, Hillary Rodham.) Once attained, it must be cultivated and nurtured. Inevitability, however impressive, is not self-renewing.

Which brings us to Gov. Charlie Crist's pursuit of the U.S. Senate, and also to Marco Rubio, Mr. Inevitability Buster. For months, Crist, Florida's popular chief executive, rode a wave comprised of assorted virtues, none so valuable as the notion that the entire campaign was a sort of formality.

Making hay from straw polls
Now, even as Crist polls light years ahead of likely Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek, the congressman from Miami, the likelihood that the governor will be the GOP standard-bearer is increasingly suspect.

Rubio, the Miami lawyer, former state speaker of the House and close ally of former Gov. Jeb Bush, is unbeaten in the dozen counties - from Pasco to Palm Beach - where Republican executive committees have held straw polls, and most of them haven't been remotely close. Why that's vital is that county executive committees reflect the passion of the local grassroots - the activists and voters who will most likely decide the primary election.

"They're the people making the phone calls and stuffing the envelopes," Rubio said after addressing the 7-month-old New Tampa Republican Club in a crowded ballroom last month. "That's why those votes are important."

They are important, also, because they convey a message, possibly pivotal, regarding the key component that won Crist an absurdly early endorsement from the Republican National Senatorial Committee - that the governor's nomination was (that word again) inevitable, so why waste finite resources on intramural rivals such as Rubio?

Self-inflicted wounds

Now, campaign money still rains in buckets on the Crist camp, even as his status has slipped from anointed to mere frontrunner. Some of his vulnerabilities among the base are his own doing: Embracing President Barack Obama during the campaign to pass the $787 billion stimulus; endorsing Big Government solutions to climate change - about which conservatives have reasonable doubts; approving billions in tax increases while calling them fees; and appointing left-leaning judges.

But you can't beat something with nothing, and in Rubio, movement conservatives detect a kindred spirit with a charismatic style and a compelling personal story, someone in whom they can invest their small-government aspirations and their political cash.

To that end, some folks in Pasco who were extremely active in helping Crist into the governor's mansion and now find themselves profoundly dismayed have thrown together a fundraiser for Rubio, set for 3 p.m. Saturday at the Pointe West Recreation Facility in Summertree, off State Road 52 in New Port Richey.

The shifting dynamic of the race, which won't be settled until August, is suggested by Republicans with local ties committed to attend, among them U.S. Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite, Property Appraiser Mike Wells and Pasco County School Board Chairman Frank Parker, each of whom has something to lose by bucking Florida's GOP hierarchy.

Says event host Bill Bunting, Pasco's Republican state committeeman, "This tells me a lot of people have a fire in the belly, and there could be an upset in this election."

There will be countless skirmishes in the battle for the soul of the GOP, but nowhere is that showdown likely to be more significant than in Florida, purplish swing state and arbiter of the national direction. Saturday, the theater shifts to Pasco and New Port Richey.

Recent polls suggest Crist's aura is a pierced balloon, rapidly leaking its air of inevitability. The grassroots, stoked on raucous town hall meetings and tea party demonstrations and hungry for an end to appeasement politics, is eager to see the fruits of their insurgency.

Rubio may be just what - or who - the rebellion needs.

IF YOU GO

WHAT: Marco Rubio Fundraiser

WHO: Marco Rubio, candidate for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate

WHERE: Pointe West Recreation Facility, 12005 Paradise Pointe Way, New Port Richey

WHEN: 3 to 5 p.m. Saturday

DETAILS: Light refreshments will be served. Photos with the candidate by Tony Masella Jr. of Our Town Florida. Minimum contribution: $50. Information: Call Bill Bunting at (727) 862-1063.

Keyword: The Jax Files, for Tom Jackson's bonus insights.

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