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GOP rift shows in N.Y., Florida races

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By WILLIAM MARCH

wmarch@tampatrib.com

Published: November 2, 2009

Updated: 11/02/2009 12:22 am

TAMPA - In what looks like a victory for the same conservative forces backing Marco Rubio in Florida, the Republican Party nominee dropped out of a special election to fill a U.S. House seat in New York on Saturday.

Nationwide, conservative Republicans have been watching two races, Florida's U.S. Senate primary and the New York U.S. House race, as top battlegrounds in the party's moderate versus conservative internal struggle.

In the New York race, moderate Dede Scozzafava, the GOP nominee, was endorsed by the national party just as Gov. Charlie Crist has been in the Florida U.S. Senate primary.

Conservative insurgent Doug Hoffman challenged Scozzafava with backing from many of the same prominent national conservative figures and organizations that are backing Rubio.

Scozzafava's withdrawal means Hoffman, running as the Conservative Party candidate, will face the Democratic nominee, Bill Owens, head-to-head in the special election on Tuesday. If Hoffman wins, it's likely to energize and embolden the conservative forces backing Rubio even further.

Republican voters in Florida will decide the Crist-Rubio race in the state's Aug. 24 primary.

In an interview before Scozzafava dropped out, Rep. Jeff Miller of Chumuckla, one of only two prominent Florida GOP elected officials to back Rubio, said a Hoffman win "would be a clear shot across the bow" of the Republican Party. "It would help build momentum for the Rubio campaign. It would show the conservatives are serious," he said.

Tallahassee political consultant Rick Wilson, also interviewed last week, said Rubio is backed by "a vocal and active conservative movement in the party's base, which will undoubtedly become more energized and active" if Hoffman wins.

"They won't let the insiders tell us, 'This is the guy' any more."

The few reliable, independent polls in the New York race show a battle too close to call between Hoffman and Owens.

The New York and Florida races aren't entirely comparable.

Scozzafava, a state Assembly member, is substantially more liberal than Crist on some issues. She is pro-choice and favors same-sex marriage, for example.

"You can't really compare Scozzafava and Crist," Wilson said. "She's an outlier, a liberal running as a Republican."

Other Republicans disagree, noting that Scozzafava has taken conservative fiscal stances.

Crist's political standing is stronger than any of the three New York candidates, but Rubio may also be a more formidable challenger.

"He's in much better shape than Hoffman, whom nobody had even heard of until about five weeks ago," said David Keating of the Club for Growth, which backs Hoffman and is considering backing Rubio.

But the races are also similar in important ways.

Like the Club for Growth, former House Majority Leader Dick Armey of Texas, South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, the RedState.org blog and the National Review magazine have all endorsed Hoffman and have endorsed or spoken favorably of Rubio.

Radio commentator Rush Limbaugh, who talks up Hoffman, showed up for a recent Rubio fundraiser in Palm Beach.

Hoffman's latest coup was an endorsement from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who said on her Facebook page recently, "There is no real difference between the Democrat and the Republican in this race."

Hoffman, who has never run for elected office before, went on the Conservative Party ticket after losing to Scozzafava in the GOP primary, in part, because he lives just outside the district. In the New York primary process, party leaders - not voters - choose the nominee.

But after receiving the nomination, Scozzafava faced a rising crescendo of criticism from conservatives and declining poll standings.

Rubio occasionally uses language in his stump speeches that seems to suggest an independent run if he doesn't get the GOP nomination.

The Republican Party, he says, "is the natural home of this movement, but not the inevitable home."

But a spokesman has denied that is a hint Rubio might jump the party.

The rural New York 23rd District, located on the Canadian border, is GOP-dominated, but it is not strongly conservative. President Barack Obama won it in 2008.

Its former congressman, moderate Republican John McHugh, left the seat vacant when Obama named him secretary of the Army.

Owens, the Democrat in the race, is a lawyer, civic leader and political newcomer. He favors Obama's health care reform package and has had strong backing from Obama, just as U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, a Democrat, probably will have in the Florida race.

Rubio said in an interview last week that he wasn't watching the New York race. "It's a full-time job running for the Senate," he said.

But since then, he's started paying attention.

"If you live in NY CD 23 vote 4 Hoffman," he posted Friday on Twitter. "Send message to those who want GOP to 'moderate' that we do not need 2 Democratic Parties."

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761.

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