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Forecasters watching possible tropical system in Caribbean

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 3, 2009

TAMPA - An area of low pressure swirling in the southwest corner of the Caribbean Sea could have up to a 50-50 shot at becoming a tropical system – either a storm or depression during the next couple days.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami have been watching the thunderstorms generated by the low pressure area off Costa Rica and about 1,000 miles south of Key West.

The hurricane center said the system has become a bit better organized and atmospheric conditions are favorable for it to develop further. Forecasters give it a 30 percent to 50 percent chance of developing by Thursday.

If it does form, high pressure over Florida and trade winds blowing across the Caribbean from the east would likely push the storm to the west and away from Florida, said Amy Godsey, deputy state meteorologist.

Forecast models are spilt on where the system will go with some taking it over Central America, some of the longer-range models take the system over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

That would not be until Monday and any storm would have to survive a long journey over Central America, Godsey said.

"It's moving so slow that a lot of things can happen by Monday," she said.

If the low pressure area becomes a storm, the next name on this season's list is Ida.

Two weeks ago, hurricane center forecasters were watching another area of low pressure in almost exactly the same place. That one never developed and part of it traveled over Central America into the Pacific Ocean.

Though the September peak of hurricane season is over, the cradle for hurricanes shifts from the Atlantic Ocean to the western Caribbean or Gulf during the last two months of the season.

Storms in October and November usually form from areas of low pressure around fronts that move south and stall over the Gulf or Caribbean. The hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.

For most of the country, November essentially means the end of hurricane season. That isn't so for Florida's Gulf coast or other states lining the Gulf.

"November is not the end of it for Florida," Godsey said.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731.

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