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Tired of pinching pennies? Retailers hope you are

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By RICHARD MULLINS

rmullins@tampatrib.com

Published: November 4, 2009

Today is Wednesday, which means this must be Black Friday.

Yes, every day is now Black Friday in the world of retail shopping.

From HSN to Sears, companies are trotting out deals a full month before Black Friday - the latest gambit aimed at cracking shoppers from a bad case of "frugal fatigue," "Puritan exhaustion" or even "indulgence withdrawal."

Such depressing definitions now abound to describe the grinding exhaustion American shoppers feel after two full years of diligent non-spending, some due to a justifiable paranoia of falling off an economic cliff into poverty. Who wants to stare at a $1,000 HDTV if they're laid off after the holidays?

To get over that fear, stores such as Toys R Us are offering deals such as free "Toy Story" backpacks to anyone who buys $30 worth of anything "Toy Story"-related. Wal-Mart and others are offering $10 or less on many hardcover books, and Kmart is offering 70 percent off some jewelry.

"The good news is, savings are clearly at a decade high," said Marshal Cohen, an analyst with the research firm NPD group. "People tell us they are beginning to get a bit tired of having to save money."

On that point, Ellen Davis of the typically ebullient National Retail Federation said, "I'm not sure if shoppers are willing to loosen the purse strings and really come back to the store with abandon. Americans aren't ready to declare the end of the recession."

Hence a blizzard of predictions, prognostications and potential indicators.

Hand wringing

The stock market has been up; that's good for shopping. So are gas prices; that's bad.

The gross domestic product is up - good. Jobs numbers are not - bad.

Foot traffic at stores such as Pier 1 is up - good. Credit card companies are raising interest rates dramatically - very bad.

And proving no economic statistic is too obscure to ponder, one retail analyst recently cited encouraging El Nino and North Pole weather patterns that could generate favorable climates in the Northeast. Good for shopping.

Combine all those economic indicators together, and retail experts are thoroughly contradictory on their forecasts.

Some banks expect retail sales to rise compared with last year's abysmal level. The National Retail Federation, however, expects total sales to fall 1 percent to $437 billion. (Last year, they were down 3.4 percent.) For many retailers, the holidays generate 20 percent to 40 percent of total annual revenue.

Earlier deals

Looking at those stats, stores decided to bring on the deals early.

Wal-Mart started early in-store deals on computers, music players, cameras and HDTVs. Best Buy also cut prices on laptops and software.

Crate & Barrel opened up free shipping on purchases over $100 between Oct. 15 and Dec. 22. Even tony Williams-Sonoma added a few select items to its virtual sale table online, including the Gaggia Achille espresso machine, normally $1,299, now $799.

Toys R Us also started deals only good before Thanksgiving, including a free Hello Kitty Cosmetic set (normally $13) with any Hello Kitty purchase over $30.

Television retailer HSN has already started holiday promotions, including an online interactive gift guide with most items already marked down, including an "Emerilware" 10-piece cookware set at $199, normally $240.

Shoppers are choosier

Given shoppers will likely spend money on something, the question has become "on what?" The retail federation expects the overall result will be shoppers going to the mall, but with fewer people on their gift list.

Two-thirds of Americans say the economy will affect their holiday plans this year, the retailers' group found in recent surveys, with 84 percent simply spending less. People will demand more sales, use more coupons, put up last year's decorations rather than buy new ones, and focus more on practical gifts and joint gifts. They'll also make more gifts, and travel less.

Gift cards will likely sell well, the federation said, but with a different impact than last year. Instead of getting that gift card and running out to buy something indulgent, people may spend the money on gas or food.

Reporter Richard Mullins can be reached at (813) 259-7919.

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