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Wake-Up Call: Freeman next rookie QB with shot at stardom

Staff photo by JIM HOCKETT

Josh Freeman is the next NFL first-round quarterback draftee with a chance to shine.

By JOEY JOHNSTON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 5, 2009

Updated: 11/05/2009 09:58 am

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Good morning!

Since the NFL merger in 1970, there have been 80 quarterbacks selected with a first-round pick in the regular draft.

Bucs rookie Josh Freeman, who gets his first start on Sunday afternoon against the Green Bay Packers, is No. 80.

What to expect? In the short term, he probably will struggle. Over his career? Who knows? It's a flip of the coin. History has taught us that much about first-round quarterbacks.

Here's all you need to know about the fragile nature of the NFL's selection process.

Three of the most iconic quarterbacks of this generation - Joe Montana, Brett Favre and Tom Brady - were not first-rounders.

How about Saints quarterback Drew Brees, the hottest thing going this season?

Second-rounder.

Eighty quarterbacks taken in the first round?

Five already have entered the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Nineteen have started in the Super Bowl.

Twenty-seven have played in the Pro Bowl.

But more than two dozen failed to start 24 games for the teams that drafted them.

Twenty quarterbacks - that's 25 percent of the best and brightest prospects over nearly four decades - were out of the league within five years.

"You'd think with as much work and study that goes into this, with as much money as these guys are getting paid now, that it would be down to more of an exact science," former Dallas Cowboys general manager Gil Brandt said. "But it's just not that way. The human element will always be there. Some things just can't be predicted.

Brandt said he wasn't overly optimistic about any of this season's first-rounders - Matthew Stafford (Lions), Mark Sanchez (Jets) or Freeman - for a specific reason. They all entered the draft as underclassmen.

"Those guys just don't seem to do as well," Brandt said. "I'm very, very strong on four-year players at quarterback, extremely strong. Generally, I think it makes a huge difference on how quickly they can hit the field and how effective they will be."

Sometimes.

After the 2004 college-football season, USC junior quarterback Matt Leinart won the Heisman Trophy and the national championship. He was projected as the likely No. 1 draft pick by the San Francisco 49ers. What more was there to accomplish?

Still, Leinart returned for his senior season at USC.

He didn't win another Heisman. He didn't win another national title. He slipped to the 10th overall pick in 2006, going to the Arizona Cardinals.

Leinart started initially, but now he is entrenched as Kurt Warner's backup.

"My first three years in the league weren't how I would've drawn it up," Leinart said. "I know I can play. But I've been humbled a little bit.

"In college, you're so used to being on top, having everything go your way. You know it can't be like that forever. But still, it's an adjustment at this level. There are so many variables for young quarterbacks, such as the situation you're thrown into or the offense you're asked to run, and I guess it's natural, right off the bat, for it to be a very difficult transition."

But last season, that theory was thrown a curveball.

Two rookies - Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons and Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens - led their teams to the playoffs with 11-5 records.

They started every game.

They threw more touchdowns than interceptions.

They completed 60 percent of their pass attempts.

It rarely happens that way with rookie quarterbacks - ever - let alone twice in one season.

"I don't know if it was a fluke or what, but I know the more I was out there, the more my confidence built up," Ryan said. "History tells you that there's some benefit to a quarterback sitting and watching. I wanted to be out there. I felt I had a ton of rookie mistakes, but I kept learning and it got better, once I settled in."

Stafford and Sanchez have started since the opening game - and neither player has been consistently outstanding.

Now it's Freeman's turn and the recipe doesn't appear favorable. The Bucs desperately need a victory. The offense lacks playmakers. The defense has been unable to keep most games close.

So how will Freeman fare on Sunday afternoon?

Study your history. Weigh all the factors. Then remember one thing.

It's a flip of the coin.

And in keeping with the Freeman/QB theme, here is our consumer's guide to the process, a mix of the subjective and factual, regarding first-round quarterbacks since 1970.

Most First-Round Quarterbacks Drafted

• Colts (5) - Bert Jones (1973), Art Schlichter (1982), John Elway (1983), Jeff George (1990), Peyton Manning (1998).

• Bucs (4) - Doug Williams (1978), Vinny Testaverde (1987), Trent Dilfer (1994), Josh Freeman (2009).

• Bears (4) - Jim McMahon (1982), Jim Harbaugh (1987), Cade McNown (1999), Rex Grossman (2003).

• Lions (4) - Chuck Long (1986), Andre Ware (1990), Joey Harrington (2002), Matthew Stafford (2009).

• Falcons (4) - Steve Bartkowski (1975), Chris Miller (1987), Michael Vick (2001), Matt Ryan (2008).

• Jets (4) - Richard Todd (1976), Ken O'Brien (1983), Chad Pennington (2000), Mark Sanchez (2009).

• Bengals (4) - Jack Thompson (1979), David Klingler (1992), Akili Smith (1999), Carson Palmer (2003).

• Titans/Oilers (4) - Dan Pastorini (1971), Jim Everett (1986), Steve McNair (1995), Vince Young (2006).

Started Every Game As Rookie

• 1971 - Patriots QB Jim Plunkett (first pick), 6-8 record.

• 1993 - Seahawks QB Rick Mirer (second pick), 6-10 record.

• 1998 - Colts QB Peyton Manning (first pick), 3-13 record.

• 2002 - Texans QB David Carr (first pick), 4-12 record.

• 2008 - Falcons QB Matt Ryan (third pick), 11-5 record.

• 2008 - Ravens QB Joe Flacco (18th pick), 11-5 record.

Most Passing Yards, First Start

• 369 - Bucs QB Vinny Testaverde in 44-34 loss vs. Saints, 1987.

• 322 - Dolphins QB Dan Marino in 38-35 OT loss vs. Bills, 1983.

• 320 - Redskins QB Patrick Ramsey in 43-27 loss vs. Saints, 2002.

• 302 - Colts QB Peyton Manning in 24-15 loss vs. Dolphins, 1998.

Most Regular-Season Wins As Rookie Starter

• 13 - Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (2004).

• 11 - Ravens QB Joe Flacco (2008), Falcons QB Matt Ryan (2008).

• 8 - Titans QB Vince Young (2006).

• 7 - Dolphins QB Dan Marino (1983), Panthers QB Kerry Collins (1995).

• 6 - Patriots QB Jim Plunkett (1971), Giants QB Phil Simms (1979), Chiefs QB Steve Fuller (1979), Seahawks QB Rick Mirer (1993).

Best First-Round Quarterbacks (Career)

1. Broncos QB John Elway (1983-98) - Hall of Famer finished career with back-to-back Super Bowl championships.

2. Colts QB Peyton Manning (1998-present) - Has all the statistics - along with a Super Bowl XLI ring.

3. Dolphins QB Dan Marino (1983-99) - Hall of Famer retired as NFL leader in passing yards, touchdown passes. Stunningly, he was selected 27th overall.

4. Cowboys QB Troy Aikman (1989-2000) - Hall of Famer was 0-11 as rookie starter, but won three Super Bowl rings.

5. Bills QB Jim Kelly (1986-96) - Hall of Famer reached four consecutive Super Bowls, but never got a ring.

6. Steelers QB Terry Bradshaw (1970-83) - Hall of Famer was self-proclaimed disaster as rookie (six TD passes, 24 interceptions), then became force with four Super Bowl championships.

7. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (2004-present) - He has two Super Bowl rings at age 27.

8. Giants QB Phil Simms (1979-93) - Gritty competitor who played the perfect game (22 of 25) in Super Bowl XXI.

9. Eagles QB Donovan McNabb (1999-present) - Second overall pick has stood the test of time.

10. Giants QB Eli Manning (2004-present) - Engineered upset of Patriots in Super Bowl XLII - and reversed his reputation in the process.

Worst First-Round Quarterbacks (Career)

1. Chargers QB Ryan Leaf (1998-2001) - Second overall pick (behind Peyton Manning) naturally suffered from comparison.

2. Packers QB Rich Campbell (1981-84) - Sixth overall pick never started a game in the NFL.

3. Cardinals/Seahawks QB Kelly Stouffer (1987-92) - Missed entire rookie season with holdout. Traded to Seahawks, where he started just 16 games.

4. Bengals QB Akili Smith (1999-2002) - Third overall pick was just 3-14 as a starter.

5. Packers QB Jerry Tagge (1972-74) - Never a good fit; had just three TD passes against 17 interceptions.

6. Lions QB Andre Ware (1990-93) - Record-setting Heisman Trophy winner played in only 14 games in four seasons.

7. Seahawks QB Dan McGwire (1991-95) - Mark's younger brother, gigantic in stature (6-foot-8, 240 pounds), just couldn't measure up.

8. Cardinals QB Steve Pisarkiewicz (1978-80) - Three seasons, 10 games, four starts.

9. Raiders QB Todd Marinovich (1991-92) - Robo-QB was trouble - on and off the field.

10. Redskins QB Heath Shuler (1994-97) - Had 15 TD passes, 33 interceptions in four seasons.

UT Spartans topple Saint Leo

The No. 8-ranked University of Tampa volleyball team (25-2, 12-1) pulled into a first-place tie in the Sunshine State Conference on Wednesday night with a four-game victory at No. 12 Saint Leo (25-3, 12-1).

Scores were 20-25, 25-23, 25-18, 25-14.

UT's Melissa Vanderhall had a match-high 20 kills and a .500 attack percentage. Kaleigh Cunningham, the two-time defending SSC player of the week, added a double-double with 18 kills and 15 digs.

The Spartans travel to Florida Southern on Saturday at 4 p.m.

Predictable?

The Bucs were one of three NFL teams - along with the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs - to fire their offensive coordinator before the season began.

Talk about symmetry: The Bucs are ranked 28th in offense. The Bills are 29th. The Chiefs are 30th.

Graham's minutes increase

Playing time is steadily increasing for Denver Nuggets forward Joey Graham (Brandon), who had 17 minutes in Denver's 111-93 win against the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night. Graham had nine points and four rebounds.

Spurlock released by 49ers

Micheal Spurlock will always have a place in Bucs' lore. He had a 90-yard kickoff return against the Atlanta Falcons in 2007, giving the franchise its first kickoff-return score in 1,865 attempts. Tuesday, Spurlock was released by the San Francisco 49ers.

Williams signs with Seahawks

Former University of South Florida cornerback Trae Williams (Durant) was signed to the practice squad of the Seattle Seahawks. Williams was a fifth-round draft choice of the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2008. He was cut, then signed to the practice squad of the Philadelphia Eagles, where he spent all year before being released prior to this season.

Birthday wishes

Happy birthday to former Hillsborough High School running back Chris Davis (class of 1998), who played at Syracuse University and had a brief NFL career. Sunday, Davis turns 30.

The Answer Man

Here's the answer to Wednesday's trivia question:

The Bucs first won a regular-season home game while wearing their orange jerseys on Dec. 18, 1977 (Bucs 17, Cardinals 7). The Bucs first won a regular-season road game while wearing their orange jerseys on Sept. 7, 1980 (Bucs 17, Bengals 12).

Thursday trivia

Here's our daily sports trivia question, featuring a Tampa Bay/Florida spin. Try your luck by commenting below.

Name the only NFL franchise to NOT use a first-round draft choice for a quarterback in any season since the merger in 1970.

Check for the answer in Friday's Wake-Up Call.

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