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Conservatives still hopeful in Florida despite Democrat win in N.Y.

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By WILLIAM MARCH | The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 6, 2009

Updated: 11/06/2009 10:58 am

TAMPA - Republicans say it's not a problem that they lost a New York special congressional election this week that was widely compared to Florida's U.S. Senate race.

But Democrats, and even some GOP moderates, suggest it's a sign of divisiveness that could damage Republicans' 2010 chances.

"It shows that drumming moderates out of the party is not a great strategy," said Brian Ballard, a Tallahassee lobbyist and veteran GOP strategist who backs the moderate Gov. Charlie Crist in the Florida Senate.

"These folks who don't know how to win elections but know how to throw tea parties need to remember you have to win a general election."

National-level conservatives, however, seem less worried that their candidate lost in New York than they are elated at having destroyed the candidacy of a competing, moderate Republican.

"War for the Heart and Soul of the GOP Has Begun," trumpeted the headline on a blog posting following the election by Richard Viguerie, legendary direct-mail wizard and strategist from the party's right wing.

"The comfortable, establishment politicians of both parties should get ready for a serious primary challenge from angry tea party activists and grassroots Americans," he said.

Nationwide, Republicans are celebrating their takeover of previously Democratic-held governor's mansions in New Jersey and Virginia Tuesday, saying it proves U.S. voters are turning against Democratic control of the White House and Congress.

They dismiss the upstate New York House race as a localized loss which they'll recoup in the 2010 regular election.

But parallels with the Florida Senate race made the upstate New York battle resonant here.

In the upstate New York district, Doug Hoffman failed to win the Republican primary, decided not by voters but by local party leaders, and ran as the Conservative Party candidate against the GOP nominee, Dede Scozzafava, and Democrat Bill Owens.

After national conservative leaders from leaders Rush Limbaugh to Sarah Palin lambasted Scozzafava as a liberal, she dropped out. Party leaders quickly switched to Hoffman, but Scozzafava made last-minute phone calls backing Owens.

Hoffman lost narrowly to Owens Tuesday, handing Democrats a seat that had been held by Republicans for a century.

"It's shameful to lose that seat," Ballard said.

Many of the national-level conservatives who backed Hoffman have either endorsed or spoken favorably of Marco Rubio, who's mounting a conservative challenge to Crist in the Florida Republican Senate primary. They include the National Review magazine, Limbaugh, former GOP House leader Dick Armey, the Club for Growth and others.

Democrats have been eagerly watching and publicizing Rubio's attacks on Crist, thinking Rubio would be easier to beat than Crist.

"The new ultra-right candidates are scaring even Republicans," said Ana Cruz, a Tampa strategist for Democrat Kendrick Meek in the Florida race. "We saw the ultra-right coalescing around this [New York] candidate – without them, he might not have ever come close."

A spokesman for Rubio drew the opposite conclusion:

"It proves there is an energized and motivated base capable of helping conservative candidates – they almost got a conservative elected in a wide-open general election" despite opposition from the party leaders who backed Scozzafava, he said Alex Burgos of the Rubio campaign.

"The bottom line is you saw conservatives rally and change things in a much shorter time line than we have to work with," he said.

Some Republicans blamed Hoffman's ineptitude as a candidate for the New York loss.

They noted that he showed up for interviews with local newspaper editorial boards, which were concerned about local issues, accompanied by Armey, who was concerned with national issues and called local concerns "parochial."

Some of the papers lambasted Hoffman for being uninformed on local questions.

Others blamed the primary process, saying it produced the wrong candidate in Scozzafava.

"The greatest lesson is that the Republican Party cannot rely on insiders to pick their nominee," said David Keating of the Club for Growth.

Still, he said, "We managed to back a third-party candidate and bring him to the brink of victory."

Members of the Club, plus its political action committee, kicked in $1 million for Hoffman's campaign.

The Club hasn't decided whether to provide similar aid to cash-starved Rubio, who trails Crist in fundraising by nearly 10 to one, but Keating said the New York loss won't affect their decision.

Florida Democratic Chair Karen Thurman said the New York race "exposed a war in the Republican Party," which she hopes will translate into Florida races where Republicans face primary battles, including the Paula Dockery-Bill McCollum primary for governor.

"The Rush Limbaughs and Glenn Becks have been trying to push a very right-wing agenda, and gotten some folks riled up, but it's put people who could possibly win in peril," she said.

Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas, House campaign chairman for the national GOP, also blamed the New York GOP primary process for the loss, and denied there's any split in the party.

"The only meaningful split on display tonight is the growing gap between out-of-touch Democrat policies and the voters," he said.

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761.

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