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Ida upgraded to tropical storm; could hit Gulf Coast next week

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The forecast track puts Tropical Storm Ida in the Gulf of Mexico in the upcoming week.

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 7, 2009

Updated: 11/07/2009 10:21 am

Now inhaling some fuel from the warm Caribbean Sea, Tropical Storm Ida is bound for the central Gulf by next week where forecasters expect the storm to make a fishook fairly close to land that would leave it about 170 miles west of Tampa Thursday.

Ida crossed eastern Nicarauga and Honduras faster than expected and skirted the more rugged terrain of both countries. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami believe Ida should thread its way between the Yucatan and western Cuba and into the Gulf.

Ida's winds should peak at about 65 mph by the end of the weekend. After that, the warm water won't be enough to overcome increasing shear with winds blowing in different directions at different heights in the atmosphere. Forecasters say the shear will sap Ida's strength.

The lastest forecasts from the hurricane center keep pushing Ida farther north before hooking but so far keep the storm from land. The forecast models are fairly well agreed on Ida's path through Monday but begin splitting after that, the hurricane center said.

Ida should move to the north and get fairly close to the northern Gulf coast by Tuesday before beginning its hook to the east and south by Wednesday. At that point, the storm should have winds of about 50 mph.

By Thursday, Ida is expected to finish its hook and hover to the east and south as a front transforms Ida from a tropical storm to a sub-tropical storm. By then, its winds should be between 35 mph and 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

After that, Ida will likely be part of the front that forecasters believe should move south or southeast as segment of a larger weather pattern.

Ida's shift from tropical to sub-tropical is normally of interest only to meteorologists, but with Ida possibly fairly close to the Tampa Bay area on Thursday, the difference between the two could have an impact on whether Ida's winds reach the West Central Florida coast.

A sub-tropical storm can pack the same winds as a tropical storm but the highest winds are stretched away from the center of circulation, unlike the bagle shape of a classic tropical storm.

With ida's center forecast to be within 200 miles of Tampa and closer to Pinellas, the strongest winds could be in Tampa's direction away from the center, or be farther in the Gulf. It's highest winds could also stretch to the northern Gulf coast by Tuesday or Wednesday if they are separated from its center.

But with the large forecast error seven days in the future, Ida could be anywhere from Cuba to the Atlantic Ocean to Louisiana by Thursday.

Regardless of Ida's exact location, if the storm hasn't been completely swallowed by the front, there could be some windy weather in store for the region next week and none of it having to do with Ida, the hurricane center said.

A high pressure area over the southeast United States will kick up wind over a good portion of the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters said.

Some of the moisture from Ida will probably drift over the region later into next week, kicking up some thunderstorms and rain, the Naitonal Weather Service says.

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