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Ida could yet make a trip to the Gulf Coast

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By NEIL JOHNSON

njohnson@tampatrib.com

Published: November 8, 2009

Updated: 11/08/2009 12:33 am

Inhaling some fuel from the warm Caribbean Sea, Ida strengthened into hurricane late Saturday that is bound for the central Gulf by later this week, where forecasters expect the storm to make a fishhook fairly close to land that would leave it about 170 miles west of Tampa on Thursday.

Ida crossed eastern Nicaragua and Honduras faster than expected and skirted the more rugged terrain of both countries. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami think Ida should thread its way between the Yucatan and western Cuba, and into the Gulf.
Forecasters predict Ida will lose strength as it enters the Gulf. After that, the warm water won't be enough to overcome increasing shear, with winds blowing in different directions at different heights in the atmosphere. Forecasters say the shear will sap Ida's strength.

The latest forecasts from the hurricane center keep pushing Ida farther north before it hooks but so far keep the storm from land. The forecast models agree fairly well on Ida's path through Monday but begin differing after that, the hurricane center said.

Ida should move to the north and get fairly close to the northern Gulf coast by Tuesday before beginning its hook to the east and south by Wednesday. At that point, the storm should have winds of about 50 mph.

By Thursday, Ida is expected to finish its hook and hover to the east and south as a front transforms Ida from a tropical storm to a subtropical storm. By then, its winds should be between 35 mph and 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

After that, Ida will likely be part of the front that forecasters think should move south or southeast as a segment of a larger weather pattern.

Ida's shift from tropical to subtropical is normally of interest only to meteorologists, but with Ida possibly fairly close to the Tampa Bay area on Thursday, the difference between the two could have an impact on whether Ida's winds reach the West Central Florida coast.

Some of the moisture from Ida will probably drift over the region later and into next week, kicking up some thunderstorms and rain, the National Weather Service says.

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