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Rare storm to brush area

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By NEIL JOHNSON

njohnson@tampatrib.com

Published: November 9, 2009

TAMPA - The first hurricane or tropical storm in 14 years to reach the Gulf during November should bring some rain, increased wind and a chance of tornadoes to the Tampa Bay area as it crosses Florida.

Hurricane Ida appears to be bound for a hit on the north Gulf coast with hurricane force winds.

And though November hurricanes are rare, they do occur. There have been 60 hurricanes or tropical storms in November since 1870.

Hurricane Paloma formed in the Caribbean Sea last November and battered the Cayman Islands and Cuba. It deteriorated to an area of low pressure before entering the Gulf of Mexico and reached the Panhandle Nov. 14 with 20 mph winds.

The last hurricane to enter the Gulf of Mexico was Hurricane Kate, which reached Category 3 strength before weakening to hit near Mexico Beach in the Panhandle Nov. 22, 1985 with winds of nearly 100 mph.

The same part of the Panhandle that Kate targeted is under threat from Ida.

A hurricane watch has been issued from eastern Louisiana to Mexico Beach, meaning hurricane-force winds are possible in 36 hours.

The storm picked up speed Sunday morning and is expected to reach land early Tuesday morning. It may not have the structure of a tropical cyclone by then, but forecasters still expect its winds to be at hurricane strength, if just barely.

It is expected to approach Louisiana this evening, the Alabama and Panhandle coast early Tuesday and be inland by that evening. After landfall, it's expected to weaken as it moves across North Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday morning. By then its winds should have dropped below tropical storm strength.

The storm will sprawl over a larger area as it moves across the northern part of Florida and its tropical storm winds could reach a large area of the state.

For West Central Florida, Ida could start pushing rain bands across the Nature Coast, then the Tampa Bay area by Tuesday. The storm is also likely to carry the risk of isolated tornadoes, mostly north of the Tampa Bay area, the National Weather Service says.

Tides may be a foot or 2 feet higher than normal, again mostly north of Tampa Bay.

The area can also expect brisk winds as the result of interaction between Ida and high pressure over South Carolina. The weather service expects to repeat a lake wind advisory issued Sunday.

After reaching land, a weakening Ida is expected to curve east and travel across the Panhandle, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday morning with its winds dropping below tropical storm strength.

Chances for rain in the Tampa Bay area start rising this afternoon and reach their peak Tuesday.

The current track will take Ida north of the Tampa Bay area, but the region is within the possible error in the forecast track.

Sunday's forecast for landfall in the north Gulf was a major shift from earlier National Hurricane Center forecasts that had Ida making a buttonhook turn and staying offshore.

Even far from Florida, Ida was helping kick up high seas in the Gulf.

The U.S. Coast Guard on Sunday dispatched a helicopter to hoist a man and his dog from a 42-foot fishing vessel about 50 miles from shore.

Gregory Lansier, 46, of Hudson was rescued about 12:50 p.m. in 7-to-10 foot seas with 30-to-35 knot winds.

Ida has continued to exceed forecaster's expectations. At one point, there was a question whether the storm would survive crossing Nicaragua and Honduras.

The National Weather Service in Ruskin issued a lake wind advisory for West Central Florida until 6 p.m. Sunday, warning that winds over open water could hit 25 mph with gusts more than 30 mph by late in the morning.

That's strong enough to flip small boats on large lakes, the weather service says.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731.

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