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Grace is gone, but tropical wave gets forecasters' attention

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: October 6, 2009

TAMPA - As forecasters bid adieu to Tropical Storm Grace, a tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean has the potential to become the next tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center has been watching the wave since the weekend as it moves west-northwest at about 15 mph.

Satellite images show the wave is fairly disorganized, but forecasters say it could become a tropical depression by Wednesday, and some intensity models show it reaching tropical storm strength in the next day or so.

None of the intensity models show it reaching hurricane strength over the next five days.

The wave is about 875 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, a bracelet of islands at the eastern edge of the Caribbean Sea.

Forecasters say the system will move for the next 24 hours through an area where conditions are favorable for it to develop. After that, conditions will worsen for a while and possibly hinder further organization.

The hurricane center gives the disturbance a 30 percent to 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm by Thursday.

Track forecast models show the storm maintaining its west-northwest path for a day or so, then taking a sharp left turn to bring it on a more southerly track into the Caribbean toward Hispaniola.

As for Grace, the hurricane center issued its last advisory about the storm at 11 p.m. Monday. What is left of the season's seventh storm will be swallowed by a front.

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