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Published: October 11, 2009
ORLANDO - About 3,000 Florida Democrats are gathered in Orlando this weekend to prepare for an election year they hope will bring the return of Democratic political power in the state.
Their optimism centers on Alex Sink of Tampa, who Democrats think can win them the governor's seat for the first time since 1994.
"I'm here tonight with a simple message ... for anyone who thinks there's a sign on the door of the governor's office that reads, 'Democrats need not apply,'" she told the crowd at dinner Saturday night. "It doesn't have to be that way."
Sink is the first Democratic candidate for governor in Florida in years to lead her Republican opponent in fundraising, and she's fairly close to that opponent, Attorney General Bill McCollum, in polls.
For Democrats, who have been marginalized in Florida since the late 1990s, a governor would not only put them back in a position of political influence, it would pave the way for gains in future elections.
"If we could elect a Democratic governor two years after the state went for (President Barack) Obama, it would suggest that there's a greater balance between the parties here than many people suppose," said University of South Florida political historian John Belohlavek, a Democrat.
Things are improving
Democrats also think they have a strong shot at the second-most important state government office, attorney general, viewed as a step toward the governor's office.
The winner of the Democratic primary between state Sens. Dave Aronberg and Dan Gelber likely will face Republican Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp in the general election. The two Democrats, running what appears to be a close race, will face off in a debate today.
State party Chairwoman Karen Thurman reminded the crowd today of the state party's low point after the 2004 election.
"We didn't have a single member of the state Cabinet, we had only seven Democrats representing Florida in the Congress," she said.
"Now we stand ready to take back our state."
Party officials said 2,100 delegates and about 800 guests paid to attend the two-day event, a turnout they called good considering the economy.
"With our fundraising and the number of new contributors we've had, at a time when the economy is bad, it shows there's excitement," Thurman said.
The Florida Republican Party has outraised the Democrats by about $9 million to about $3 million since the start of 2009, but the Democrats' totals are an improvement over recent non-election years.
Leading into the convention, the state attorney general's campaign got two pieces of good news.
First, during July, August and September, Sink raised more money than McCollum for the second consecutive three-month campaign finance reporting period - $1.6 million compared to just less than $1 million for McCollum.
Second, in what some consider a sign of dissatisfaction by Republicans with McCollum, state Sen. Paula Dockery, a Lakeland Republican, says she is leaning toward running against him in a primary.
"A lot of Republicans have told me they'll vote for Sink over McCollum," Dockery told the Tribune.
McCollum would rather not have to fight a primary battle before taking on Sink, who faces no significant challenge in the Democratic primary.
"For the first time in years, the Democrats are largely united on their statewide candidates, particularly for governor," said Belohlavek said.
Eyes on redistricting
McCollum has led Sink in most polls, but with many voters saying they are undecided. A June Mason-Dixon poll gave McCollum a 6-point lead, but with 24 percent undecided; an August state Chamber of Commerce poll showed him up 9 points, with 22 percent undecided.
But McCollum is better known, running his fourth statewide race after 20 years in Congress. Democrats and some political experts say that means Sink has a better chance of adding support as voters come to know her.
The Democratic Party fell into minority status in Florida when Republicans won control of the state Legislature in the mid-1990s, the governor's office in 1998 with Jeb Bush, and the elected state Cabinet in 2000.
In the 2002 election, a new legislative districting plan drawn by the GOP-dominated Legislature allowed Republicans to win majorities of 2-1 or more in the Legislature and congressional delegation.
After some recent gains, Sink is now the focus of Democrats' hopes.
In 2006, she won the chief financial officer's post in her first run for office, an unusual feat in a large state.
She rallied the crowd Saturday by casting McCollum as a career politician and herself as a problem-solving businesswoman. She retired as state head of NationsBank, later Bank of America, in 2000 after a 26-year career there.
To face the state's problems, she said, requires "someone who isn't running for office just because they want another office. Electing Bill McCollum would be like electing Mr. Status Quo."
Democrats may gain some legislative seats in 2010 - 22 Republican-held state House seats will come open - but have no chance of overcoming the large GOP majorities. But having a Democratic governor and attorney general in power during the 2010 redistricting could change that picture for the 2012 election and thereafter.
The overall result could "change the face of Florida," Gelber said.
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