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Slight uptick predicted for holiday retail sales

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The Associated Press

Published: October 21, 2009

NEW YORK - ShopperTrak, a retail research firm, predicted Tuesday that total holiday sales will rise 1.6 percent compared with a year ago, which would be good news for retailers in the aftermath of last year's steep decline.

The research firm also expects a 4.2 percent decline in foot traffic.

Last year, holiday sales fell 5.9 percent and foot traffic dropped 15.4 percent, according to ShopperTrak estimates. The research firm tracks traffic at more than 45,000 stores.

The holiday sales estimate is a bit rosier than other forecasts offered the past few weeks, which at best have been unchanged from last year's data. The 2008 holiday season saw the biggest sales decline in at least several decades.

The National Retail Federation, usually bullish about holiday sales, predicts a 1 percent decline in total sales to $437.6 billion for November and December combined.

"The consumer is just tired" of all the bad news, said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak, based in Chicago.

ShopperTrak's figures exclude sales from grocery stores, restaurants, auto dealers, gas stations and drugstores.

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