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Forecasting future of Tropical Storm Erika proves difficult

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: September 2, 2009

Updated: 09/02/2009 11:57 am

TAMPA - Forecasters are struggling to predict where an unkempt Tropical Storm Erika will head through Monday and express the possibility the storm may not survive the next five days.

It is too distant to say whether it will threaten Florida, and forecast models of the storm's path for this weekend split like a flushed covey of quail.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say the storm could pass over or near Puerto Rico by Friday, and tropical storm watches may be issued later today for the island along with the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.

The storm is about 100 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands, with winds of about 40 mph. Tropical storm warnings were posted for the Leeward Islands as well as Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

Forecasters believe Erika will generally keep its west-northwest track at about 9 mph the next couple of days as it travels on the southern rim of a high pressure area.

After that, forecast models diverge, with some taking Erika to the south over Cuba and others curving to the north and keeping it east of the Bahamas by Monday.

Forecasters say they have low confidence in their projected tracks.

Erika's path will be heavily influenced by how strong the storm becomes as it rides along the high pressure area.

A weaker storm will move more to the south while a stronger storm is more likely to curve toward the north.

Though all the reliable intensity models bring Erika to hurricane strength by Saturday – some to Category 2 – forecasters at the hurricane center expect Erika to remain a tropical storm, peaking Friday with 50 mph winds.

After that, the forecast calls for the storm to weaken to a tropical depression by Sunday.

The hurricane center also says there is a chance Erika could dissipate by Labor Day.

The storm is going through an area where winds are blowing in different directions at varying levels of the atmosphere. Called shear, those winds can disrupt a storm and stunt its growth.

Forecasters no longer believe a tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean near the Cape Verde Islands will develop into a storm or depression.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731.

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