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Tropical Storm Erika weakening as it heads for Puerto Rico

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: September 3, 2009

TAMPA - A waning Tropical Storm Erika appears bound for Puerto Rico on Friday but may not be around long after that.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say Erika, about 200 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, is weakening with winds just below 40 mph. It is expected to drop to a tropical depression by the time it approaches Puerto Rico early Friday.

Though weakening, winds of at least 35 mph reach 175 miles from near its center.

However, the center is not clearly defined — a sign the storm is losing its organization. Even so, the storm will likely dump heavy rain over Puerto Rico and other islands at the northern end of the Caribbean Sea.

The hurricane center expects Erika to dump 3 to 5 inches and some places could get up to 8 inches.
The hurricane center says Erika may fall apart completely by Monday or Tuesday east of the Bahamas, becoming just a mass of rain and thunderstorms.

Erika is being ripped apart by winds from the west at about 34,000 feet that are disrupting the storm's structure.

Also, an area of dry air is in its path that will further weaken the storm and moving over Puerto Rico will sap more of what little punch Erika has left.

In predicting the demise of Erika, forecasters are discounting the intensity models that show the storm continuing to gain strength through the weekend and becoming a hurricane. Some even call for Erika to become a Category 2 hurricane by Labor Day.

Those models have consistently overestimated the intensity of the tropical storm.

As Erika fades, forecasters started watching what they call a "vigorous" tropical wave that just poked off the African coast about 550 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.

It is moving east at about 10 to 15 mph. The hurricane center says some development is possible over the next few days, though forecasters give it less than a 30 percent chance of becoming a depression or tropical storm by Saturday.

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