Democrats at convention say confidence growing for 2010

About 3,000 Florida Democrats are gathered in Orlando this weekend to prepare for an election year they hope will bring the return of Democratic political power in the state.

Their optimism centers on Alex Sink of Tampa, who Democrats think can win them the governor's seat for the first time since 1994.

"I'm here tonight with a simple message ... for anyone who thinks there's a sign on the door of the governor's office that reads, 'Democrats need not apply,' " she told the crowd a dinner tonight. "It doesn't have to be that way."

Sink is the first Democratic candidate for governor in Florida in years to lead her Republican opponent in fundraising, and she's fairly close to that opponent, Attorney General Bill McCollum, in polls.

For Democrats, who have been marginalized in Florida since the late 1990s, a governor would not only put them back in a position of political influence, but would pave the way for gains in future elections.

"If we could elect a Democratic governor two years after the state went for (President Barack) Obama, it would suggest that there's a greater balance between the parties here than many people suppose," said University of South Florida political historian John Belohlavek, a Democrat.

Democrats also think they have a strong shot at the second-most important state government office, attorney general, viewed as a step toward the governor's office.

The winner of the Democratic primary between state Sens. Dave Aronberg and Dan Gelber likely will face Republican Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp in the general election. The two Democrats, running what appears to be a close race, will face off in a debate Sunday.

State party Chair Karen Thurman reminded the crowd today of the party's low point in state politics after the 2004 election.

"We didn't have a single member of the state Cabinet, we had only seven Democrats representing Florida in the Congress and our number in the Legislature and even in local offices were at an all-time low," she said.

"Now we stand ready to take back our state."

Party officials said 2,100 delegates and about 800 guests paid to attend the two-day event, a turnout they called good considering the economy.

"With our fundraising and the number of new contributors we've had, at a time when the economy is bad, it shows there's excitement," Thurman said.

The Florida Republican Party has outraised the Democrats by about $9 million to about $3 million since the start of 2009, but the Democrats' totals are an improvement over recent non-election years.

The party activists gathered at a Disney resort heard speeches Saturday from two young governors likely to figure in future Democratic presidential politics: John Baldacci of Maine, known for his overhaul of state health insurance regulation; and Martin O'Malley of Maryland, a former Baltimore mayor who was called one of the nation's best mayors by Esquire and Time magazines.

But the star of the show was Sink, the state chief financial officer.

Leading into the convention, her campaign got two pieces of good news.

First, during July, August and September, Sink raised more money than McCollum for the second consecutive three-month campaign finance reporting period -- $1.6 million compared to just less than $1 million for McCollum.

Second, in what some consider a sign of dissatisfaction by Republicans with McCollum, state Sen. Paula Dockery, a Lakeland Republican, says she is leaning toward running against him in a primary.

"A lot of Republicans have told me they'll vote for Sink over McCollum," Dockery told the Tribune.

McCollum would rather not have to fight a primary battle before taking on Sink, who faces no significant challenge in the Democratic primary.

"For the first time in years, the Democrats are largely united on their statewide candidates, particularly for governor," said Belohlavek said.

McCollum has led Sink in most polls, but with many voters saying they are undecided. A June Mason-Dixon poll gave McCollum a 6-point lead, but with 24 percent undecided; an August state Chamber of Commerce poll showed him up 9 points, with 22 percent undecided.

But McCollum is better known, running his fourth statewide race after 20 years in Congress. Democrats and some political experts say that means Sink has a better chance of adding support as voters come to know her.

The Democratic Party fell into minority status in Florida when Republicans won control of the state Legislature in the mid-1990s, the governor's office in 1998 with Jeb Bush, and the elected state Cabinet in 2000.

In the 2002 election, a new legislative districting plan drawn by the GOP-dominated Legislature allowed Republicans to win majorities of around 2-1 or more in the Legislature and congressional delegation. U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson was the only Democrat in a statewide office.

The past two elections showed signs of a comeback -- Democrats made incremental gains in the Legislature and Congress, and won the state in 2008 for Obama.

Sink is now the focus of their hopes.

In 2006, she won the chief financial officer's post in her first run for office, an unusual feat in a large state. That made her the first new Democratic face in a more than a decade to win a statewide race.

She rallied the crowd Saturday by casting McCollum as a career politician and herself as a problem-solving businesswoman. She retired as state head of NationsBank, later Bank of America, in 2000 after a 26-year career there.

"Bill McCollum has spent more than 30 years as a professional politician," she said. "He's done a very good job of making sure he has a job. But what about everybody else's job?"

To face the state's problems, she said, requires "someone who isn't running for office just because they want another office. Electing Bill McCollum would be like electing Mr. Status Quo."

A real Democratic resurgence, however, "has to come back to redistricting and regaining power in the Legislature," Belohlavek said.

Democrats may gain some legislative seats in 2010 - 22 Republican-held state House seats will come open - but have no chance of overcoming the large GOP majorities.

But having a Democratic governor and attorney general in power during the 2010 redistricting could change that picture for the 2012 election and thereafter.

The governor can veto the congressional districting plan passed by the Legislature and has horse-trading influence over the legislative plan. A Democratic attorney general, in turn, could influence litigation likely to result over redistricting. That could make Democrats more competitive.

The overall result could "change the face of Florida," said attorney general candidate Gelber.