Poll: Crist would narrowly win as an independent

A new Quinnipiac University poll suggests why Gov. Charlie Crist might consider bolting the Republican Party and running for the U.S. Senate as an independent: In a three-way race with Crist as an indy, Marco Rubio as the Republican and Kendrick Meek the Democrat, Crist narrowly wins.

The poll, released this morning, also adds to the evidence that Crist's best path to the Senate is to avoid a GOP primary battle against Rubio. Rubio has a long lead over Crist in the primary, but Crist as the Republican nominee performs better in the general election against Meek than Rubio does.

The numbers:

• In the GOP primary, it's Rubio 56 percent, Crist 33 percent. That shows clear movement from January, when Rubio first edged ahead of Crist in this poll, 47-44 percent.

• In the general election, Crist as the GOP nominee defeats Meek by 14 points, 48 percent to 34 percent. Rubio beats Meek by only 4 points, 42 percent to 38 percent. That's just slightly greater than the poll's 2.8-point error margin.

• In a three-way, the outcome was Crist as independent, 32 percent; Rubio as GOP nominee, 30 percent; and Meek as Democrat, 24 percent.

The poll follows a furor that erupted Wednesday over whether Crist will run as an independent . It happened when Crist and his campaign manager dismissed or refused to answer questions about the possibility, which the campaign flatly denied last week.

Regardless of that denial, speculation has continued amid signs that Crist has been maneuvering in the background to leave the possibility open.

On Tuesday, Crist campaign manager Eric Eikenberg, apparently irritated, refused to answer a Wall Street Journal reporter's question on the subject. "I'm not going to respond to Marco Rubio campaign-driven rhetoric about Charlie Crist," he was quoted as saying. The Crist campaign repeatedly has accused the Rubio camp of fueling rumors.

The Rubio campaign put out several news releases Wednesday referring to The Wall Street Journal story.

On Wednesday, Crist declined to address the subject in comments to The Tampa Tribune.

Asked directly whether there is a chance he will run as anything but a Republican, Crist said, as he has said before during the legislative session, "I'm not even thinking about that right now; I'm so consumed."

Asked again a few minutes later, he said he was thinking only about Senate Bill 6, the so-called teacher tenure bill that he must sign or veto by Friday.

Many speculate that if he bucks the Republican leadership in the Florida Legislature by vetoing SB 6, it will indicate he plans to break from the party.

Crist, asked earlier Wednesday whether he thought he could veto the bill and run successfully as a Republican, replied, "Sure."

As to whether he was considering running as an independent, Crist said, "I'm not."

Last week, Eikenberg put out a statement insisting that Crist is staying in the Republican race. "To put these rumors to rest once and for all, as we have said countless times before, Governor Crist is running for the United States Senate as a Republican. He will not run as an Independent or as a No Party Affiliation."

Crist has increased his purchase of television advertising in the crucial Orlando and Tampa areas, possibly in a last-ditch attempt to see whether he can make up ground against Rubio.

The ad buy is scheduled to end April 25, leaving a few days for Crist to gauge the effects - possibly with a poll - before April 30, the qualifying deadline for federal offices.

By noon that day, any candidate for the U.S. House or Senate must file as a Republican, Democrat, minor party or no-party affiliate.

A Wall Street Journal blog included comments from unnamed Crist "advisers" on what tactics he could use to justify going back on Eikenberg's statement.