Poll: McCollum, Meek hold leads; last-minute spending continues

A last-minute poll in the Florida primaries for governor and U.S. Senate shows both Democratic Senate candidate Kendrick Meek and Republican governor candidate Bill McCollum holding or widening their leads over their millionaire opponents.

That's happening despite last-minute surges of spending by those opponents - Rick Scott, health care executive challenging McCollum, and real estate investor Jeff Greene, challenging Meek.

In the Democratic Senate race, the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey done for the Tribune and other news clients showed Meek leading 42 percent to Greene's 30 percent, with 25 percent undecided and 5 percent other responses.

That's little changed from a Mason-Dixon poll last week showing Meek with a 14-point lead, 40-26 percent.

In the Republican governor primary, it showed McCollum pulling away from Scott, with 45 percent to Scott's 36 percent, 15 percent undecided and 4 percent other responses.

Last week's poll showed McCollum just edging ahead of Scott by 4 points.

The poll sampled opinions of 500 likely Democratic and 500 likely Republican primary voters by phone Aug. 17-19, for error margins of 4.5 points.

Scott lost ground in the poll despite a last-minute deluge of money poured into his campaign, mostly for television commercials that have inundated state viewers.

In the period between July 31 and Thursday, state records show, Scott loaned his campaign $15 million, bringing his person funding of the campaign $38.9 million.

In that same period, the campaign has spent at least $11.6 million on broadcast advertising and $1.6 million on mail and other voter contacts.

Meanwhile, his wife has put a total of $11 million into his independent political committee, Let's Get To Work, and it has received several hundred thousand more, mostly in large contributions of $10,000 to $50,000, from political committees and businesses.

Since the beginning of August, it has spent at least $1.2 million on media purchases and consulting.

McCollum can't match that level of spending, but he hasn't exactly been idle. Campaing insiders estimate the campaign itself and several independent committees working for McCollum's cause will spend about $20 million by the primary.

His campaign has raised $11.6 million and spent nearly all of it as of last Thursday, according to state reports.

The independent committees - some with legally acknowledged links to the campaign and some without -- have added close to $9 million more. Florida First Initiative, a committee McCollum has filed papers to raise money for, has spent $3 million just since July 27 on advertising.

In the last few weeks, Florida First has been deluged with huge contributions, as corporate and high-powered Republican Party backers of McCollum feared he was losing to Scott, whose led in most polls until recently.

They included:

• $500,000 from the League of American Voters, a committee affiliated with former GOP presidential contender Fred Thompson, which doesn't report the sources of its money.

• $250,000 from the holding company of The Villages retiree community.

• About $250,000 from Florida Liberty Fund, affiliated with incoming House Speaker Dean Cannon, and About $600,000 from the Freedom First Committee, affiliated with incoming Senate President Mike Haridopolos, both in turn funded heavily by health care, sugar production, real estate and other interests, and by other political committees.

• $100,000 from R.C. Stork Air, a telecommunications company.

• $50,000 from Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Florida.

• $25,000 from CSX railway.

• At least $60,000 from sugar industry-affiliated corporations and individuals.

• $500,000 from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

• Hundreds of thousands from highway and construction contractors.

McCollum's campaign's fundraising includes $1.7 million in taxpayer money under the state's public campaign financing system, which has drawn criticism from Scott.

It also includes nearly $3.9 million from the state Republican Party, under laws allowing the party to pay for most of the campaign's expenses other than advertising purchases. About $750,000 of that came just in the last week, Scott's campaign said.

That led Scott to accuse McCollum Saturday of "bankrupting" the Republican Party, leaving only a pittance of $54,000 in the party's federal campaign account, which is used to pay for get-out-the-vote efforts in the general election.

Former Arkansas governor and Republican presidential contender Mike Huckabee will stump with McCollum today in Jacksonville, his campaign announced.

Greene, meanwhile, has piled some $8 million into his campaign since Aug. 6, bringing his total spending to about $23 million.

Meek, by comparison, reported raising around $7 million through Aug. 4, and continuing to receive a trickle of contributions thereafter. On that date, he had $2.6 million cash on hand. Campaign insiders say, however, Meek has cut back his spending because of his lead over Greene and hopes to save some of that money for the general election.

Meek will spend this evening and much of Monday campaigning in Tampa, including holding a rally with Democratic governor candidate Alex Sink in West Tampa tonight.

McCollum and Scott both plan to Tampa stops on Monday flyaround tours of the state Monday, but details haven't been announced.

Greene hasn't announced any last-minute Tampa area campaign stops.