Scott: A gift to Democrats or their worst nightmare?

Rick Scott's triumph in the GOP gubernatorial primary may have drawn almost as many cheers from Democrats as it did from Republicans.

Several polls showed that Alex Sink, the presumptive Democratic candidate, was leading Scott before Tuesday's election. The Republican elite wanted state Attorney General Bill McCollum to win, and McCollum had done a yeoman's job of highlighting vulnerable spots in Scott's background.

Scott, Democrats surmised, would be the easier opponent. Now the question remains: is Scott's nomination the gift that many Democrats think -- or will the political newcomer turn out to be their worst nightmare?

Democratic strategist Robin Rorapaugh is among those who see an advantage. McCollum, she said, was a more seasoned campaigner, less likely to make "beginner's mistakes," while "the only advantage for Scott is his money."

But Aubrey Jewett, political scientist at the University of Central Florida, was uncertain. "I think a lot of Democrats were hoping they would get Scott because they viewed him as a potentially flawed candidate, with a lot of personal business baggage," he said. "But along with that baggage comes a very large bank account."

Initial polls released since the primary reflect that uncertainty.

Public Policy Polling, which correctly predicted the primary outcome, released new results on Wednesday
showing Sink leading Scott, 41 percent to 34 percent. In the final stretch of the primary, only 57 percent of the GOP supported Scott, while Sink had 72 percent of her party's support as well as more support from independents.

"Rick Scott has to hope Bill McCollum supporters forgive him for the negativity of the primary," said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, which often surveys on behalf of Democrats.

Friday, however, Rasmussen Reports released its findings -- that Scott led Sink, 41 percent to 36 percent.

The polling firm, which had not attempted to predict the primary outcome, surveyed voters one day after the election. Factoring in "leaners" Scott's lead tightened, 45 percent to 42 percent. Leaners voice no preference for a candidate initially but do so later in the survey. Rasmussen labeled the race a "toss up."

"I wouldn't underestimate Scott as much as the Democrats are," said Matthew Corrigan, political scientist at the University of North Florida. "Scott's a wild card ... and it's better to be an 'outsider' than an 'insider' this year. Sink now becomes the insider in the race; I'm sure that's not what she wanted."

Sink, a former bank executive who is now Florida's first-term chief financial officer, said little when asked if she was better off facing Scott, a Naples businessman. "I didn't mind" when he was elected, she said.

Scott spokeswoman Jennifer Baker, however, asserted that "He's a much tougher opponent. People are sick of the status quo and the insider special interests."

Scott's chances may hinge largely on his party's ability to rally its troops behind him. Republican leaders, state and national, have pledged their support, though some GOP activists and local leaders have voiced concern that post-primary bitterness could keep McCollum supporters from joining in.

Thursday, McCollum declined to endorse Scott and told reporters he still has "serious questions" about Scott's character. He also raised the specter of Columbia/HCA, the healthcare company where Scott was CEO, and which paid $1.7 billion in fines for Medicare fraud. Scott was never charged personally in the case.

Incoming state House Speaker Dean Cannon, acknowledged that some Democrats think Scott is the weaker opponent, but said "that's the same thing that Hilary supporters said about some guy named Barack Obama."

Cannon is among several leading Republicans accompanying Scott on a "unity" tour that hits Tampa
on Monday.

Money could also make the difference as Sink, who is less familiar to voters, seeks to introduce herself before Scott can define her. Baker said Scott intends to hold Sink accountable for supporting policies of President Barack Obama, who "is not very popular in Florida."

With a personal net worth exceeding $218 million, Scott sank more than $50 million of his and his wife's money into the primary. During the general election, he is also likely to receive contributions from at least some of McCollum's former backers, in addition to party support.

"If Scott chooses to, he will easily be able to outspend her 2 to 1, and I suspect, 3 to 1," Jewett said. In Florida, "Republican candidates at the state level ... almost always outspend their opponents."

Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who directed Obama's 2008
campaign in Florida, noted that Sink has already raised more than any past Democratic candidate for governor in Florida. State reports show that Sink had raised $7.5 million in cash as of Aug. 19 and had nearly $3 million remaining.

Schale also pointed out that Scott lost the biggest counties along the politically moderate I-4 corridor. That, Schale said, presents a key opportunity for Sink. "In order to win this state, you've got to win swing voters."

Sink said she will continue talking about Columbia/HCA as well as Solantic, another healthcare company in which Scott is a major investor and which has drawn complaints from several doctors. McCollum stressed both issues heavily in the primary.

Baker attributed many criticisms of Scott's business record to Obama's administration, which attacked when Scott's organization, Conservatives for Patients Rights, fought against federal health care reform.

"Voters care about jobs," she said. "If the strongest criticism that Alex Sink has of Rick Scott is a rehashed smear campaign by the Obama administration, she's most definitely not going to be the next governor of the state."