Rubio extends lead, Meek gains on Crist

A new poll indicates that no-party candidate Gov. Charlie Crist has faded in the state's three-way Senate race, allowing Republican Marco Rubio to extend his lead.

Meanwhile, Democrat Kendrick Meek, in third place, has gained on Crist.

The change apparently happened because of Democrats swinging toward Meek and independent voters moving toward Meek and Rubio - all of them moving away from Crist, according to the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey.

It shows Rubio with a 12-point lead - 40 percent to 28 percent for Crist, 23 percent for Meek and 9 percent undecided.

The winner will be the candidate with the most votes among the three in the Nov. 2 election, with no runoff.

Rubio has edged up only slightly in the poll since the last installment done just before the state's Aug. 24 primary.

In that poll, Rubio led with 38 percent to 33 percent for Crist and 18 percent for Meek.

But the change has put Rubio in a commanding situation in the race, said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker.

"Sitting on 40 percent in a three-way race is a very strong position to hold," and puts Rubio only a few percentage points away from virtually certain victory, he said.

Meek has gained significantly among Democrats since the primary, in which he defeated self-funding billionaire Jeff Greene and became the official Democratic nominee. Those gains nearly all came at Crist's expense.

For the first time in a Mason-Dixon poll, Meek now leads Crist among voters who identify themselves as Democrats - Meek got 44 percent of those voters to Crist's 37 percent, and 10 percent for Rubio.

Among independents - no-party or minor party voters -- Rubio now leads both Crist and Meek, with 38 percent to Crist's 27 percent and Meek's 20 percent.

Rubio's campaign said the poll suggests he's on the way to winning.

Rubio spokesman Alex Burgos said the poll shows why Crist "is abandoning his earlier promise to run a positive campaign and is now attacking Marco and Kendrick Meek."

Coker noted that that if Rubio gains even a couple of percentage points more than his current 40 percent, he could lose only if Democrats almost totally abandon either Crist or Meek -- an unlikely scenario.

But Meek's campaign said they believe that's what will happen.

"Only Kendrick Meek can stop Rubio," said a Meek news release.

"Not that it will be easy, but Kendrick is the one who can do it," said campaign spokesman Adam Sharon. "There's a path for Kendrick and there's not for the governor."

"We're climbing, and he [Crist] is falling. Once we pass him, the floodgates will open" of voters moving toward Meek, Sharon said.

Crist's campaign spokesman Danny Kanner stuck to the campaign's message in response to the numbers - "Voters understand Washington is broken and are in search of an honest, independent Senator ... not a typical partisan politician," he said. "Between now and November 2nd we will get that message out."

The poll sampled opinions of 625 likely voters in phone calls Sept. 20-22, for an error margin in the overall results of 4 points. Error margins would be larger for results from subsections of the sample, such as Democratic voters or independent voters.

In his attempt to court Democratic votes, Crist got a boost Saturday -- his campaign confirmed that former U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler of Boca Raton is endorsing him, and the two will campaign Sunday in Wexler's former district in Broward County, the Democratic heartland of Florida.

The endorsement isn't surprising - Wexler, a self-proclaimed "fire-breathing liberal," and Crist have been friends for years despite their differing political orientations.

In 2006, it was at Wexler's request that Crist ordered early voting hours in Florida extended-a move criticized by Republicans because it probably helped President Barack Obama win Florida.

Crist has hired Eric Johnson, a former high-level staff aide to Wexler, as his South Florida political director.

Wexler resigned from his U.S. House seat in January, and now heads the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace in Washington.

Sharon said the endorsement "is all about friendship, not about politics."