Herman Cain surges past better-known GOP hopefuls in Florida straw poll

In an outcome that left some Republicans flabbergasted, Herman Cain registered a convincing win in the state Republican Party's Presidency 5 straw poll Saturday.

Cain outdistanced both his top two competitors, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, by 2-1, getting 37.1 percent of the votes of party activists assembled for state GOP convention and straw poll in Orlando.

Presumed frontrunner Rick Perry, who had campaigned intensely for delegate support in the straw poll, spending more money and time than any other candidate, got 15.4 percent, in what some political experts said was a serious loss.

Romney got 14 percent; Rick Santorum 10.9 percent; Ron Paul, 10.4 percent; Newt Gingrich 8.4 percent; Jon Huntsman 2.3 percent and Michele Bachmann 1.5 percent.

Party officials, who had said the straw poll would predict the outcome of next year's Florida presidential primary and even the national nomination, were left pondering what the results mean.

Most noted that Romney, even though he came to Orlando for the convention and associated events, declared he wasn't participating in the straw poll and didn't make attempts to woo the delegates.

Perry, meanwhile, devoted intense effort to courting the delegates, but probably suffered from a poor performance in the Fox News debate Thursday night that started off the weekend of GOP events; and he left Orlando today, after holding a breakfast for Presidency 5 delegates, to attend a straw poll in Michigan.

"It proves one of the most basic rules of retail politics -- the guy who shows up and works hard wins," said party spokesman Brian Hughes.

Asked about predictions, including those by Gov. Rick Scott, that the straw poll winner likely would be the GOP nominee, Hughes said, "We might just have seen the ultimate twist in this campaign cycle."

University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus said the results should be taken seriously as an indicator of the direction of the race.

"It certainly shakes up the field," she said. "I think now it's wide open."

She said the result was a blow to both Perry and Romney, but more to Perry: "He came in here the frontrunner, he spent a lot of money, he was the only one who did a lot of pre-convention appeals to the delegates – it's a major loss."

That could leave an opening for new candidates, including Sarah Palin and New Jersey Gov. Chris Cristie.

Republicans, MacManus said, "are sick of Perry and Romney bashing each other."

Paul Senft of Haines City, one of Florida's delegates to the Republican National Committee, said some delegates "took it as a personal affront" that candidates including Perry and Romney didn't stay at the convention for the straw poll.

Asked whether he thinks Cain could end up winning the Florida primary or the nomination, he said, "After this performance, I think he's got a good shot."

In a statement from his campaign, Cain said, "This is a sign of our growing momentum and my candidacy that cannot be ignored."

Some 3,471 delegates paid registration fees to attend the convention and vote in the straw poll, but only 2,657 cast ballots. Hughes said some delegates apparently didn't attend or didn't stay for the voting.

In a speech opening the convention before the vote, Gov. Rick Scott had told the delegates, "I'm convinced that the Republican candidate who wins Florida will be our nominee for president."

"As Florida goes, so goes the nation," he said. "And as you go, so goes Florida. … Florida will be the most important battleground in the country -- again."

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The straw poll was intended to be an accurate indicator of the views of state Republicans, party officials said.

Only registered convention delegates, chosen in a process intended to create a representative sample of state Republican party activists and leaders, were allowed to vote. Campaigns couldn't bus in supporters or buy voting tickets.

Scott noted that in each of the three previous election cycles when the straw poll has been held, the winner has gone on to be the party's nominee – Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Bob Dole in 1996.

Perry spokesman Mark Miner called the outcome "a devastating loss for Mitt Romney," considering he campaigned in Florida in 2008 and this year.

"He's been in the race 5½ years, and we've been in it 5½ weeks," he said.

The Romney campaign made no statement on the results, but Romney strategist Eric Fehrnstrom tweeted: "Words that Rick Perry probably wants to take back, from this morning's breakfast: 'I have all my hopes on Florida.' "

The outcome also appears to be a blow to Scott, who hasn't endorsed any candidate but praises Perry in virtually every speech he makes.

In a statement on the results, Scott said they "show that no candidate can take Florida for granted. Clearly, communicating a strong conservative message directly to Florida and its grassroots voters made a difference."

In the Thursday debate, Perry garbled comeback lines when other candidates, particularly Romney and Michele Bachmann, attacked him over Social Security and immigration.

Perry delegate Bill Bunting, the Pasco County GOP state committeeman, said Perry forces did damage control successfully, but still lost some delegates. He also said Perry forces suggested wavering Perry backers vote for Cain rather than the man they considered his strongest competitor, Romney.

Neither Romney nor Bachmann campaigned directly for straw poll backing although both were on the ballot, and appeared at earlier events including the debate held in coordination with the convention.

Romney said he didn't want to use resources for straw polls, even high-profile ones in Iowa in August, and in Michigan and Florida this weekend.

wmarch@tampatrib.com (813) 259-7761