When straw poll equals pep rally

Column

On the theory that there is never a bad time to throw a party for 500 of your closest chums — but that December is a better time than most — you wonder why Pasco Republicans are just now getting around to doing what they're doing Tuesday.

And that would be: Staging a preprimary primary — otherwise known as a straw poll — to gauge county Republicans' enthusiasm and leanings regarding, chiefly, the GOP's declared candidates for the White House and the U.S. Senate. Party historians declare it is the first of its kind.

Astonishing.

Where Randy Maggard, chairman of Pasco County's Republican Executive Committee, is concerned, the event, scheduled for a 6 p.m. tipoff at the Dan Cannon Auditorium on the county fairgrounds, is nothing less than the natural response to an election-year thrumming that has swelled like a chorus of cicadas on the Fourth of July.

"It's everywhere I go," says Maggard, whose day job, running Sonny's Discount Appliances in Dade City, brings him into contact with countless other business operators and local corporate executives, few of whom he would describe as "political junkies." Nonetheless, he detects the telltale signs of a campaign-season high more suited to the traditional post-Labor Day push.

Make no mistake, Maggard says. Tuesday's straw poll isn't about stoking the fires. "The enthusiasm is there already," he says. "It's buzzing. Not a day goes by that I don't hear from people, people who rarely talk about politics, about how ready they are.

"That's what the straw poll is all about. It'll give them some relief, like a pressure valve. They'll be able to press that button."

Well. You can believe that if you want to.

It may very well be that the hierarchy of Pasco's official GOP has reasons besides stoking the fires for scheduling a straw poll. For instance, it stands to be a significant fundraiser: Candidates or their representatives buy table space, self-appointed delegates pay $10 to vote; and there will be barbecue sandwiches available at $5 each.

After expenses — renting the hall and a couple of the county's voting machines — the payday could reach the middle four figures.

Nor will we discount the rippling influence of an early report from Pasco's most-motivated GOP voters. "Pasco tends to be a little more conservative than some other parts of the state," Maggard says, "and so we'll get to see what the conservative base is thinking."

Remember, he says, it was a lopsided win in an early straw poll in Pasco that set the stage for Marco Rubio's gallop from nowhere to the U.S. Senate, and possibly the No. 2 slot on the GOP's national ticket. Given that, Maggard says, "I believe (the straw poll) will be bigger than what a lot of people think."

Even now, its rejection of Barack Obama in 2008 notwithstanding, Pasco remains a reliable barometer of the mood of the Sunshine State: Last year, county voters sided with the winners in the races for governor and all the Cabinet positions, as well as up and down the list of ballot measures.

All of which simply enriches the potential for news-making Tuesday night. Recent polls in Florida suggest that former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has opened a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, presumed front-runner and favorite of state House Speaker-designate Will Weatherford of Wesley Chapel.

Will Pasco's straw poll galvanize Gingrich's advantage, give Romney a boost or breathe new life into some stagnating campaign? Maggard claims to have a forecast in his head, but, for the record, he says only: "If something unexpected happens, it would not shock me at all. It's like a mini-election night. I can't wait to find out what people are thinking."

Who's got spirit?