Democrats' Momentum Is At Stake

Florida Democrats hope for more than just one of their own in the White House as result of Tuesday's election; they also hope for a step toward regaining the influence in Florida politics they almost completely lost in the 1990s.

More Democrats in Florida's delegation to Congress, maybe some small gains in the state Legislature, and a stronger foundation for future campaigns are on their Nov. 4 wish list.

But those hopes are tentative, and depend on some dubious questions - mainly, will Barack Obama have "coattails" in Florida, meaning the ability to draw voters to other Democrats on the ballot as well as himself?

U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, the state's senior elected Democrat, said the Obama campaign's immense, well-funded effort to win Florida has improved prospects for other Democrats.

Democrats, he said, have never had what Obama has done in Florida - "an extensive ground-game operation, hundreds of offices all over the state, where voters are being contacted by phone, e-mail or personal visit."

"That's nirvana for Florida Democrats," Nelson said.

If Obama wins, two Tampa Democrats, U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor and fundraiser Frank Sanchez, will be among the political beneficiaries. Both were early Obama supporters.

Sanchez, a former Clinton administration official, would likely be offered an administration job.

Castor says she doesn't want to leave her congressional seat, but it's likely her Rules Committee seat would make her an important ally of the administration. She hopes to be heavily involved in health care policy, among other things.

U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler of Boca Raton, another early Obama supporter known for his staunch support of Israel, would likely become one of the administration's top allies on the Foreign Affairs Committee.

Grass-Roots Gains

When it comes to winning more Florida elections, however, Democrats have long lacked a sophisticated political machine to compete with the highly effective state Republican Party.

They have made a start the past two years, building an important tool Republicans have long had: a statewide voter contact database.

Based on the state's voter list, it's augmented by lists of state hunting and fishing licenses, occupational licenses and other databases. The Obama campaign's intensive voter contact efforts have added substantially to that voter list.

For any campaign that has the money to do grass-roots voter contact efforts, the list provides a starting base.

Meanwhile, Democrats hope for better-than-normal results at the polls because of dissatisfaction with the Bush administration and the enthusiasm of Obama supporters, what incoming state House Minority Leader Franklin Sands called "the Obama phenomenon."

They have a long way to go.

Republicans now hold the governor's office, two of three seats in the elected Cabinet, and large majorities in the state Legislature - 77-43 in the House and 26-14 in the Senate.

In Washington, Republicans hold 16 of Florida's 25 U.S. House seats and one of its two U.S. Senate seats.

Those majorities were even larger before 2006.

That year's anti-GOP sweep put Democrats into two previously Republican U.S. House seats and seven state House seats - what Democrats hope was the start of a sustained comeback.

Congress is where Democrats hope for their biggest gains this year.

They're likely to lose one seat: that of Rep. Tim Mahoney of Boca Raton, now enmeshed in a sex scandal. But they appear to have a good chance of unseating two Republican incumbents in the House, Tom Feeney of Oviedo and Ric Keller of Orlando.

Democrats have mounted serious challenges to four other GOP incumbents: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and brothers Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart of Miami, and Rep. Vern Buchanan of Sarasota.

But experts say it's wishful thinking for Democrats to hope for more than a net gain of one or two seats.

Outlook Dim In Legislature

In the state Legislature, Democrats have fewer hopes.

"We had a much more friendly landscape in 2006 than today," said Sands, who is in charge of the party's state House campaign. In the House, "We'll be very happy to bring back all our incumbents and maybe pick up a couple of seats," he said.

Republicans say any idea of Democratic legislative gains is wishful thinking.

"We've seen some significant polling showing we're going to maintain what we've got, and maybe even pick up one on the Senate side," said state GOP Chairman Jim Greer.