Warm water spreading across the tropical Pacific Ocean has provided a major benefit for Florida by blunting the hurricane season.
As water temperatures from Central America to New Zealand rose above normal, shifts in winds 7 miles or so above the ground created conditions this summer making it difficult for Atlantic Ocean hurricanes to form. But in winter and spring, an El Nino impact on Florida may not be as beneficial.
A winter with an El Nino usually means a winter with tornadoes. Three of Florida's five most deadly tornado outbreaks since 1950 happened during an El Nino. The outbreaks in 1966, 1998 and 2007 killed more than 80 people.
Though an El Nino has little or no effect on many states, Florida is different, said Michelle L'Heureux, meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center who tracks the El Nino's progress. "Florida will likely be having impacts associated with an El Nino," she said.
An El Nino causes the jet stream that blows from west to east across the country to move farther south than a normal winter. That drift in the jet stream lets more winter storms and stronger ones reach the Florida peninsula, said Amy Godsey, deputy state meteorologist.
El Nino should peak between now and January but it won't disappear. "That's not to say the impacts will go away right away," L'Heureux said.
Climate Prediction Center scientists aren't sure how long El Nino will last, but expect it could linger as late as May, she said.
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