Gulf rig blast reverberates

Even as the Coast Guard works to contain oil from the deadly explosion on a drilling rig off the Louisiana coast, those opposed to offshore drilling say the disaster could strengthen their argument against allowing drilling closer to Florida's beaches.

"I think this drill explosion and resulting oil spill are resounding quite loudly through Tallahassee right now," said U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat. "I think it's going to drive an ax through" proposals by some to allow drilling as close to the coast as three miles in some places and 10 miles elsewhere.

"I just can't help but believe that people are going to be much more skeptical" of such proposals, said U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, a Democrat from Tampa who opposes drilling off the coast of Florida.

Even those who favor the "drill, baby, drill" approach to oil exploration acknowledge the effect of the accident.

Whether the effect will last longer than the television coverage is debatable.

The explosion will make "the debate more intense," said Susan MacManus, political science professor at the University of South Florida. "Opponents will be emboldened."

When it comes to the drilling debate, public opinion can shift dramatically and quickly. Just as oil spills can swing public sentiment against drilling, spikes in gasoline prices can move the needle of public opinion the other way.

The discussion is "very much influenced by what is going on at the moment regarding the issue," MacManus said.

The state Legislature is not scheduled to vote on offshore drilling this session, so it will not take up the issue until next year at the earliest. By then, legislators will have had time to gather information about the explosion's cause and effect - and the accident may have faded from the public psyche by then.

David Cartes, director of the Institute for Energy Systems, Economics and Sustainability, said the explosion likely will move the discussion in Florida toward the center but not far enough to turn the state against drilling.

"I think its going to heat up the debate a little bit, certainly add fuel to the fire, so to speak, and rightfully so," said Cartes, adding that the rest of the country isn't likely to allow Florida to opt out of offshore drilling much longer.

People will focus more on safety, which is a needed part of the discussion, Cartes said. "We've been assured by the industry that these things aren't supposed to be happening. Why did it happen?"

The debate almost certainly will become red hot if the explosion affects Florida's tourist-attracting beaches. That, though, is highly unlikely, said Doug Helton, incident operations coordinator at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"It's kind of hard to say never," Helton said. "It would certainly surprise us."

It is possible that some weathered, small, solidified chunks of oil may appear sporadically on beaches after they have churned about in the Gulf of Mexico, Helton said. But those scattered tar balls won't be enough to raise concern at any particular beach, he said.

The explosion already has prompted rhetoric on both sides on the drilling issue.

"I think it's going to push the proponents back on their heels," said Eric Draper of the Audubon Society. "It's going to change the debate in Tallahassee."

Not surprisingly, drilling proponents don't see it quite that way.

"Everybody is smart enough to understand that we've got to have oil and we have to have natural gas, and for that, you have to drill," said Barney Bishop, president of Associated Industries of Florida. "Despite that, the environmentalists are going to tell you that (the Louisiana explosion is) going to change a lot of people's minds. That's a whole lot of supposition."

An official with the Florida Petroleum Council said it's too soon to know what the fallout from the explosion might be.

"Our prayers and thoughts are going out to the families right now," said Eric Hamilton, the council's associate director. "Until we have more information about exactly what happened, it is hard to ascertain what the situation is. ... The industry strives for zero tolerance in accidents and incidents like this."

Because the Legislature is not tackling the issue this year, MacManus said there has been a lull in the debate.

"People are always interested in the issue in Florida, and it could become part of people's campaigns this fall," MacManus said. "In terms of right in the here and now, it's not as important as things like jobs and economic recovery and foreclosures."