2010 election may be pivotal

On the morning of Nov. 4, 1998, Florida Republicans awoke to a new political world - one they controlled.

The previous day's election meant that for the first time in modern history, a Republican governor, Jeb Bush, would take office along with Republican majorities in both houses of the state Legislature.

That election led to a decade of GOP dominance of state politics.

Republicans used the power of the Legislature and governor's office to draw GOP-friendly districts for state legislators and members of Congress, to influence the outcome of presidential elections, and to twist the arms of industries and their lobbyists for political donations.

After 2002, when the new districting plans took effect, Democrats became virtually irrelevant in state politics. They have since regained ground, but remain the minority party.

Some Democrats, however, see a change in the air.

They hope the 2010 election will do for their party what the 1998 election did for Republicans.

That's because of three items on the ballot Nov. 2: the governor race, in which Democrat Alex Sink appears tied or narrowly leading; and constitutional amendments seeking to outlaw gerrymandering of legislative and congressional districts.

Even if Sink wins and the amendments pass, no one thinks Democrats will come close to regaining control of the Legislature, the state's congressional delegation or re-establishing their former dominance of state politics.

But some Democrats say there could be more competitiveness in legislative and congressional races, a more moderate tone in state politics and acceleration of the effects of demographic changes that are making Florida more Democratic.

"It's a convergence of factors that could return Florida government to a balance between Republicans and Democrats that more accurately reflects the electorate," said Peter Rudy Wallace, a St. Petersburg lawyer and former Democratic state House speaker.

Steve Schale, Democratic political strategist for President Barack Obama's 2008 campaign in Florida, said the state is gradually becoming younger and more racially diverse - largely because of Hispanic immigration - "and as that happens it's becoming more Democratic."

"The 2010 election could speed up that inevitable process," he said.

Wishful thinking?

Republicans acknowledge they have a lot to lose in the election, mainly because of the dominant position they hold.

But former GOP state party Chairman Al Cardenas said Democratic ideas about a significant shift in the balance of power are wishful thinking.

"Clearly, if one of those amendments passes, you're going to have a different set of rules, but what the Legislature does is not in a vacuum," he said. "The impact might be there, but it won't be the wholesale shift of balance that some are predicting."

If Democrats are hoping for a watershed opportunity, "They couldn't have picked a worse election cycle," he added.

In 2006 and 2008, when Democrats gained seats in the Legislature, "The wind was at their backs. This time the wind is at our back. We're running against an unpopular president and Congress."

In shaping the future of politics in Florida, the governor race is the most crucial on the 2010 ballot.

"It's the most important political office in any state for building your state organization and political power," Cardenas said.

Florida's U.S. Senate race between Democrat Kendrick Meek, Republican Marco Rubio and no-party candidate Gov. Charlie Crist is getting nationwide publicity, "But it's probably more symbolic than a really practical effect" on state politics, Schale said.

The governor's office affects fundraising and the strength of the party organization, and is "the single biggest tangible asset" in a state presidential campaign, Schale said.

"It gives you a real figurehead who can raise money for your party, and a bigger political class of volunteers and staff operatives."

In 2008, he said, "We had to build an entire state infrastructure from scratch - (presidential candidate John) McCain was able to tap into an existing Republican infrastructure."

In addition, "Elections officials are under the guidance of the governor's office," Cardenas said. If one party is in charge, as Republicans were during the state's notorious 2000 recount, "You hope to do a fair job, but it also means the other side won't interfere," he said.

Schale said Sink's election would substantially improve Obama's chances of winning Florida again in 2012.

Control of the Legislature is probably the best fundraising tool available to a political party because of the number of corporate special interests who have a financial stake in its decisions.

Not even the most optimistic Democrats predict they will come close to a majority in either house.

They hope to gain a few seats - Republican Faye Culp's South Tampa-based District 57 state House seat, where Democrat Stacy Frank faces Republican Dana Young, is one of their top hopes.

The power of mapping

But the 2010 vote could have a major long-term effect because of one of the most important and least understood aspects of state politics - drawing legislative district lines.

After every U.S. census, the Legislature draws lines for its own districts and those of the state's U.S. House members.

Computers have made district mapping a powerful tool for controlling who gets elected, allowing mapmakers to isolate pockets of voters according to their performance in past elections and putting them together in districts to get the desired result, Wallace said.

The technique is to cram opposing voters into a few districts where they will have big majorities while distributing friendly voters to create small but sustainable majorities in many districts.

That led to such districts as Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor's Tampa-based 11th District, which has a near invincible Democratic majority because it includes pockets of Democratic voters from St. Petersburg and Bradenton as well as central Tampa.

Those Democratic voters were taken out of districts now held on narrow majorities by Republicans C.W. Bill Young and Vern Buchanan.

Amendments 5 and 6 on the ballot - one each for the congressional and legislative plans - would require that districts be as compact as possible and forbid drawing them to benefit either political party.

The governor can veto the congressional plan but not the legislative plan.

But because some powerful legislators invariably want to run for Congress and want districts drawn to benefit their campaigns, horse-trading occurs between the two plans, allowing the governor to influence both.

After the 1998 election, which gave Republicans a free hand, they drew maps that led to 2-1 GOP majorities in both houses and a GOP 18-7 advantage among the state's 25 U.S. House members, even though the state had voted 50-50 in the 2000 presidential race.

"Right now, the Legislature's not reflective of the electorate," even though Democrats have gained seats since then, said Rep. Ron Saunders, D-Key West, incoming House minority leader. "Hopefully, the amendments will lead to more parity."

Some political experts say computerized and politicized districting has led to increased extremism throughout U.S. politics.

"In many districts now, the candidates don't have to listen to voters from the other party at all," said state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald, D-Sarasota. "A competitive district pushes candidates in both parties to be moderate in their views and consider the opinions of voters across the spectrum."