U.S. may aid Florida budget

As state economists confirmed the $3.2 billion shortfall that Florida is facing next year, a bill advanced in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday that could shrink Florida's budget gap by one-third.

Tuesday's conference of top state economists produced a forecast for next fiscal year's revenue that more or less matched what they predicted in December. The state will enjoy a modest increase in revenue, which will fall about $3 billion short of what's needed to continue existing levels of basic state services and programs.

"Overall, the adjustments to the forecast are indicative of an economy (that) is stabilizing," said Amy Baker, coordinator of the state Office of Economic and Demographic Research, who led the conference.

Florida appears to have hit bottom after more than a year of economic free-fall, she said. Modest growth is expected until "full recovery begins in earnest in the spring of 2011."

The economists' deliberations coincided with the advance of legislation in Congress that could pump more than $1 billion into Florida's Medicaid program.

Medicaid is the biggest budget buster that lawmakers face this session, as high unemployment has forced more people to seek government assistance. Last year's federal stimulus package provided enhanced federal Medicaid funding only through the end of the 2010 calendar year, six months shy of the end of the 2010-11 fiscal year.

Tuesday afternoon, the U.S. Senate voted 66-34 to end debate on a sweeping bill that includes extending the Medicaid stimulus through June 2011. Florida's Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson voted to advance the bill.

Republican Sen. George LeMieux said he voted no because it would add $100 billion to the federal deficit without a clear means of paying for it. In a statement, LeMieux said he cast his vote "with a heavy heart," agreeing that many proposals in the bill would help Florida.

The U.S. House has already passed companion legislation; the Senate could approve it this week. The chambers will have to reconcile differences in their bills to send a final package to President Barack Obama.

"It's very, very important for our budget and our state, and most importantly, our people," Gov. Charlie Crist said Tuesday during an impromptu appearance in a state Senate budget committee.

State leaders have been waiting on tenterhooks as partisan rancor in Congress has delayed or killed legislation that could expand the Medicaid stimulus funding. Crist opted last month to budget the money in his proposed spending plan for 2010-11, arguing that the funding was likely to materialize.

State lawmakers, however, say they won't make such assumptions without clear assurances from Congress.

"I would believe it when I see it," House budget Chairman David Rivera, R-Miami, said Tuesday. "When it actually passes the Congress and is signed by the president, if that happens before April 30, we will deal with the issue."

The state House has proposed total spending amounts for education, health care and all other areas of next year's budget. State Senate leaders are expected to release their version as soon as today.

Tuesday evening, the state Senate was rumored to be finalizing smaller spending totals than the House for health care, human services and the justice system, and larger ones for education, transportation and economic development.