Gates Plans A Pre-Emptive Strike With Early Release Of Defense Budget Plan

After more than 50 years as the military's gas station in the sky - and a decade of attempts to replace it - the KC-135 is showing its age.

At a base outside the nation's capital, the cockpit of a 1957 aerial refueling plane still has a quarter-sized hole in the ceiling through which crews used to navigate by the stars. Pilots' hands have worn away much of the black paint from the yokes used to guide the jet. Large patches of silver tape hold up tubing in the cabin. And the oldest member of the crew on a recent training mission was seven years younger than the plane.

Despite its age, the Air Force still needs the KC-135 for a critical mission: keeping its fighter jets and other planes flying as far and long as possible.

The failure to replace the fleet of 450 planes - built in the late 1950s and early 1960s - reveals much of what's wrong with how the military buys weapons.

Bitter competition between defense contractors, heavy pressure by members of Congress eager to bring jobs to their districts and bungling by the military have contributed to the delay. So, although the KC-135 has gotten by with a patchwork of new engines and navigation systems, the cost of keeping it flying is growing by the year. And the potential price tag for a fleet of replacements is closing in on $100 billion.

"The tanker program is a case study on how inefficient our acquisitions system is," said Loren Thompson, a defense analyst with the Lexington Group.

In a military acquisition environment in which the Navy is buying destroyers it doesn't want because of pressure from Congress, the Army's modernization plan is over budget at $159 billion, and delays and production problems mean the F-35 fighter program could cost $1 trillion to buy and maintain, Defense Secretary Robert Gates is trying something new: he will publicly announce the Defense Department budget today.

THE ANNOUNCEMENT

•In an unusual move for the Pentagon, Gates will announce his budget blueprint before shipping the formal recommendation to the White House's Office of Management and Budget, first announce in telephone calls to congressional leaders and then in an afternoon news conference.

•The decision to go public with the plan before it is vetted by the Office of Management and Budget gives Gates an opportunity to explain how the decisions made on individual weapons programs add up to a comprehensive vision.

•The strategy may head off some attempts by lawmakers and others to alter the defense budget, and it also will give Gates a sense of what the real budget fights are likely to be.

•Normally, powerful industry lobbyists would already have the detailed blueprints of the Pentagon's plans. But Gates required top Pentagon officials to sign agreements promising not to disclose details of the deliberations.

•Gates' proposals will go to the White House, which will send a budget to Congress in May.

WHAT MAY CHANGE

The Overall Plan

•The decisions Gates will announce are expected to be the first step in a broad reshaping of the military under President Barack Obama's administration.

•The Pentagon's $180 billion-a-year weapons acquisition plan is expected to be extensively pruned, affecting dozens of programs including warships, aircraft and combat vehicles, as well as missile defense systems and a new fleet of presidential helicopters.

•Gates has made no secret of his intention to take a hatchet to troubled high-tech programs designed for fighting such countries as China or Russia. Such moves would help free up money for simpler systems used for fighting insurgencies like those in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Air Force F-22 Fighter

•James McAleese, a defense consultant in McLean, Va., and Loren Thompson, another consultant with ties to some of the biggest defense companies, both said they expect Gates to let the Air Force build 20 more F-22s next year. (The Air Force would like to buy those and at least 40 more over the next two years to bring its fleet of the planes to at least 243.)

•Other industry officials said they were not sure if Gates would continue to finance the advance fighter, which was designed in the Cold War and has not been used in combat. It has become a symbol of many of the cost overruns and delays that have plagued military programs.

Navy Shipbuilding Programs

•Those in the industry also expect Gates to end a Navy program to build a $3 billion stealth destroyer, though it is not clear how many of the three ships that have received some money will be built.

•Rep. Gene Taylor, a Democrat from Mississippi and chairman of a House sea-power subcommittee, said questions had emerged about whether a new system for catapulting planes off the next generation of carriers would work. If it does not, the Navy would have to return to a traditional system, delaying the new carriers by a year.

Army's Future Combat System

•Executives say they think Gates has decided to revamp the Army's Future Combat Systems, a $160 billion mix of robotic sensors and new combat vehicles, with the number of manned vehicles being scaled back to two or three, from eight.

•But they expect the Pentagon to push ahead on the network of sensors meant to protect soldiers by providing them with greater battlefield intelligence. Gates has prodded the Army to speed the development of some of the sensors and deploy them as quickly as possible.

Missile Defense Programs

•Defense experts say that Gates is likely to cut $1 billion to $2 billion from these programs.

•Obama and other officials have made comments indicating they are more interested in systems that protect soldiers from shorter-range missiles than still-unproven ones meant to destroy intercontinental missiles.

•Several industry officials said they thought Boeing's airborne laser system, which would equip a modified 747 jetliner with a laser to shoot down missiles shortly after they are launched, might be killed.

•Industry officials also said Boeing's ground-based midcourse defense system, also designed to destroy long-range missiles, might be scaled back.

Controversial Programs

•Other controversial programs, such as a new presidential helicopter that has been riddled with cost overruns, are expected to be killed or curtailed.

PREPPING FOR THE CHANGE

•Last year, in a series of speeches and articles, Gates outlined what he saw as fundamental problems with the Pentagon budget: too many programs try to do too much, leading to cost overruns and delays.

•He said he would offer more modest, cost-effective decisions.

•He also has pushed the Pentagon to do more to develop weapons systems relevant to the wars that the United States is fighting, as well as other low-intensity conflicts.

•He has suggested the military spends too much time and money developing weapons systems for conventional fights.

•He has insisted that some conventional weapons programs must be canceled or delayed in order to afford the tools needed to address terrorism and guerrilla insurgencies, which he thinks will pose far greater dangers to the United States in the foreseeable future than opposing armies, navies or air forces.

THE ANNOUNCEMENT

WHAT MAY CHANGE

PREPPING FOR THE CHANGE