Scientist: Oil spill could hit Loop Current within 24 hours

A University of Miami scientist says the Gulf oil spill could get into what's called the Loop Current within a day, eventually carrying oil south along the Florida coast and into the Florida Keys.

But the risk to Florida's pristine, white west coast beaches continues to be low from the growing and menacing blob of oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

That continues to be the opinion of a University of South Florida professor who has been monitoring and tracking the spill since an oil rig exploded and sank off the Louisiana coast last month.

"Right now that likelihood is very low,'' said Robert Weisberg, a professor in the marine science department at USF's St. Petersburg campus. "I'm more concerned with the North Florida beaches than I am with the west coast.''

Weisberg said he wasn't sure of the timetable on when the oil spill might hit the Loop Current. He didn't believe, however, that it would within a day. "It may happen quickly. It may take some time,'' he said.

But Nick Shay, a physical oceanographer at UM's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, told the Associated Press today that the oil spill could hit the Loop Current within 24 hours.

Weisberg and Shay agree that once the oil enters the Loop Current, it likely will end up in the Keys and continue east into the Gulf Stream.

Shay says the oil could affect Florida's beaches, coral reefs, fisheries and ecosystem within a week.

He described the Loop Current as similar to a "conveyor belt," sweeping around the Gulf, through the Keys and right up the East Coast.

Shay says he cannot think of any scenario where the oil doesn't eventually reach the Florida Keys.

Weisberg's concerns also stretch to the Florida Keys, and the East Coast, from Miami all the way to Cape Hatteras, N.C.

That's because he fears oil from the spill will get caught up in strong currents that run from near the site of the spill, be propelled immediately southward to the Florida Straits and then curl around the tip of Florida before running up the East Coast.

"It's very likely that at some point oil will be entrained in the Loop Current,'' Weisberg said. "Once entrainment happens, the speed of the Loop Current could go from that point to the Dry Tortugas in a week, to Cape Hatteras in another two weeks.

"Getting into the Loop Current may take some time,'' he said. "But once in the Loop Current, the oil will move rather quickly.''

Weisberg joined U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Tampa, on a conference call this afternoon with reporters to discuss the oil spill and its potential threat to Florida.

"This is not good news for Florida,'' Castor said of Weisberg's projections, which are being used by federal agencies fighting the spill. "It would just be horrendous.''

Castor has used the spill as a platform for asking President Obama to mandate a bigger buffer between Florida coastline and any new offshore oil rigs.

"We cannot allow rigs to creep any closer to our shoreline,'' she said. "Too much is at stake to come any closer.''