UM professor: Oil now flowing into Loop Current

Oil from the massive spill in the Gulf of Mexico has gotten sucked into the Loop Current, the conveyor belt of water that could send some of the mess to the Florida Keys and up the east coast.

That's the opinion of Hans Graber, a professor at the University of Miami, who has been watching the progression of the oil based on satellite images.

"You see these spaghetti-like filaments,'' Graber said. "What we can't tell from space is whether this is a thick layer of molasses or is this like a thin sheen on the surface.''

Another unknown is what form the oil will be when it arrives in the Keys - whether it will be a sheen or tar balls or something else. A lot of that depends on winds and other weather factors.

"I think in the Keys within a week or so we should expect to see some early arrivals of oil,'' Graber said.

While the oil getting into the Loop Current is bad news for the Keys and the east coast of Florida, it is a positive sign for Pinellas County beaches and other places along the Gulf coast.

"The west coast of Florida is a little more protected,'' Graber said.

That won't be the case, however, depending on how much oil gets into Florida Panhandle beaches. Coastal currents and movements could eventually drag down some of the oil residuals to the west coast.

"If we have a few more fronts like we had a couple of days ago, that could be accelerated,'' Graber said. "But if the weather is like it is today, it may not happen at all.''

Now that it has entered the Loop Current, Graber thinks it's a matter of time before there is an east coast impact.

"In the end, it will depend on if they are successful today in capping or cutting down the amount of oil leaking into the water,'' the professor said. "If this goes on for weeks and perhaps months, then I think it's just a matter of time when the oil will show up all along South Florida.

"It's not a question of 'if.' "