It's Wait-And-See Time As Rays Turn To Kaz

BOSTON - There have been few chances to second-guess Rays manager Joe Maddon this season, because usually the guess has hardly been out of our mouths when Maddon's hunches have worked, often perfectly, sometimes eerily, in this wondrous season.

Where there were 66 wins a year ago, now there are 103. Where there was nothing, now there is everything, a World Series, one win away.

That said, I say:

Scott Kazmir?

Maddon put in long hours with his brainish trust, crunched numbers and notions and decided to alter his starting rotation and go with a wing and probably a prayer - Kazmir, shaky to the core of late, to seal the Red Sox coffin tonight at Fenway Park in Game 5 of the ALCS.

James Shields, the team's best clutch starter, will go in Game 6 at the tarps-off Trop if necessary.

I say Shields should go tonight.

None of this will matter if the Rays hitters once again take their '27 Yankees pills after breakfast.

And the case for Kazmir in Game 5 looks good, provided you averted your eyes when he pitched down the stretch.

Shields is 0-3 with a 10.12 ERA at Fenway Park. Kazmir is 4-4 with a 3.02 ERA, though he is 0-2 in five decisions this season with a 9.67 ERA. But Fenway is a place where Kazmir has always felt comfortable, and there aren't too many of those places left.

And with Kaz, the Rays bullpen could step in (as in Game 2, when Kaz stepped in it) and have a day off if there's a Game 6, when Shields pitches back at the Trop.

"I'm going to say it again, at any moment he can catch fire," Maddon said.

Or he can burn to the ground.

"We like the fact that he's pitching with an open day following, the ability to utilize the entire bullpen," Maddon said.

A strangely cautious comment from a wonderfully positive man.

I'd have gone with Shields.

Consider this: If this ALCS was tied 2-2 tonight, Maddon would start Shields.

He'd go with his most reliable guy, his meat eater.

So why not tonight?

The Red Sox are five feet under, heading for six.

Their crowds are dead. Their dugout is dead.

Why give Boston any reason to believe?

The Rays don't have to win tonight.

But why not win tonight? Why not go for it as they have all season?

Back to Game 5

"I was very eager for this opportunity to get back out there and redeem myself from my last outing and everything," Kazmir said.

You know what will happen, right?

Scott Kazmir, the youngest starter on the staff, the Rays' all-time winner, will go six strong and send the Rays to the Series.

I bet I get hit in the eye by his champagne spray.

It would serve me right.