Full circle or boxed in Afghanistan?

In February 1989 the Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan. The United States also packed its bags and left the region, and then washed its hands. Afghanistan descended into civil war, Pakistan became a safe haven for terrorist groups, and the Taliban enjoyed territorial conquests and ultimately political governance of Afghanistan.

In 2011, the U.S. finds itself in a similar circumstance, facing the pressing question of withdrawing or staying the course and not allowing history to repeat itself. Have we gone full circle since the Soviet invasion and pullout, or are we now boxed in Afghanistan, compelled to make commitments to never abandon Afghans again?

Now that Osama bin Laden is dead, and a somewhat shaky pro-U.S. President Hamid Karzai leads Afghanistan, and President Asif Ali Zardari in Pakistan, the region's political situation today is more favorable for U.S. interests than in 1989. But the security situation in both countries is increasingly volatile, with the Taliban waging its spring offensive in Afghanistan along with revenge attacks for bin Laden's death in Pakistan.

The U.S. advances in counterterrorism, and stabilizing and securing Afghanistan and the tribal regions of Pakistan, where al-Qaida operatives find refuge, come with a double-edged sword. For each step forward there are setbacks.

Drone attacks in Af-Pak are successful in taking out militants, but each time drones are used in the region, there is domestic outcry for violations of sovereignty, and when civilians are killed anti-American sentiments spike.

Killing bin Laden is a major achievement in counterterrorism, but Pakistanis are enraged with the U.S. for violating their country's territorial sovereignty. They also are furious with their own government for failing to detect bin Laden in Islamabad's backyard. These events might threaten the Zardari government's stability in the long run. That would create a dilemma for the U.S., because of the uncertainty of who would replace the current Pakistani government. Also, killing bin Laden will likely trigger more terrorist plots against U.S. interests and citizens. The militant chatter is already voicing such calls for revenge.

Removing the Taliban from power was a tremendous relief to Afghan women, men and children. But now the Taliban lurk in the wings, waiting to pounce the moment that the U.S. and coalition forces pull out. Worse, the Karzai government has been entertaining the thought of negotiating with the Taliban and offering some sort of power-sharing deal with them – full circle, to the detriment of many Afghans.

While it is in U.S. domestic interests to bring home our troops from Afghanistan, all the Afghan and Pakistani politicians see right now is U.S. abandonment once again. Gen. David Petraeus acknowledges that the security situation in Afghanistan is "fragile and reversible." NATO will turn combat responsibilities to the Afghan National Security Forces by December 2014. Although NATO will continue supporting Afghan forces behind the scenes, the latter will take on full operational duties on the ground.

Afghan forces have made significant gains, but their effectiveness in the face of full-scale Taliban insurgency and in the absence of U.S. troops is highly uncertain.

President Obama has emphatically stated that U.S. troops will draw down from Afghanistan beginning in July. Americans feel relieved, as most do not wish to see us bogged down in Afghanistan. But in the eyes of many Afghans, U.S. troops leaving Afghanistan only means that we have come full circle, yet again.