Pasco County's taxable property value will continue to decline in 2010-11, by 11 percent, according to estimates released Friday by the property appraiser's office.
If county commissioners do not raise property taxes, it could mean a more than $17 million loss from the county's operating and fire budgets.
"We've seen the bottom just fall right out" of the housing market, Property Appraiser Mike Wells said Friday. "People were buying houses that had no business buying a house. It's not their fault. Everybody wants to own a home. It's a mess, but it's going to right itself."
Just not in the next fiscal year, or the one after it, Wells predicted.
"The Save Our Homes (property tax amendment) is practically nil now because we're in a declining market," Wells said. "For 2011, residential (property values) will probably go down a point or two, but it's about hit the bottom.
"I don't think we'll see a rise in value for some time. There are too many houses for sale. Until those homes fill up, all the construction trades will remain idle."
Nearly $329.4 million in new construction will be added to the county's tax base in 2010-11, the property appraiser's office estimates.
Last year, the total taxable value of real estate countywide was $23 billion, down nearly $4 billion, or 14.6 percent from 2008-09.
Wells traced the start of Pasco's housing boom to 2003-04. Because of the Save Our Homes amendment, he was restricted to raising assessed property values 2 percent to 3 percent.
"There was billions in value that went untaxed," he said. "It wasn't my plan, but this is what the voters passed. It took billions and billions off the tax roll and gave tens of thousands of Pasco County homesteaders significant tax relief for several years."
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