McCollum pulls slightly ahead of Scott in new poll

After two months of lagging behind in the polls, gubernatorial candidate Bill McCollum has claimed a slight lead over GOP primary opponent Rick Scott, new results show.

But if McCollum is winning the battle, he may be in danger of losing the war. That's because the biggest winner of the rough-and-tumble primary season appears to be Alex Sink, the presumptive Democratic nominee who has sprung ahead of both Republicans in general election match-ups.

Scott, a multi-millionaire financing his own race, was leading McCollum by double-digits in several polls released in late July and early August.

But now -- less than two weeks before the close of the primary -- Scott trails McCollum, the state's attorney general, 30 percent to 34 percent, according to this latest survey conducted Monday through Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research,

That spread falls within the margin of error. The key for both candidates may be the 33 percent of likely GOP voters who say they are still undecided. Nonetheless, it represents a turnaround for McCollum, who was six points behind Scott in Mason-Dixon's prior survey released Aug. 6.

The large number of undecided voters stunned Brad Coker, managing director for Mason-Dixon.

"This is more like a race for agriculture commissioner," he said. "Thirty-three percent undecided, less than two weeks out in a governor's primary? I don't remember seeing it in the 20-plus years I've been polling."

That indecision roughly correlates with the GOP candidates' negative name recognition, even within their own party. McCollum's rating is 30 percent unfavorable in a sampling of GOP voters; Scott's is 36 percent unfavorable.

Coker speculated that one of Scott's favorite talking points -- illegal immigration -- is alienating Hispanic Republicans.

Both Scott and McCollum favor of Arizona's controversial law to crack down on illegal immigration. But Scott backed the law first and has bashed his opponent for not being consistent or bullish enough on it.

This week, McCollum and state Rep. William Snyder proposed a law that closely resembles Arizona's. Still, Coker said, McCollum has tried to walk a more delicate line on the issue. "Scott was using it as a wedge issue -- a sledge hammer ...That makes some Cuban American voters a little nervous."

The GOP primary battle between the candidates turned nasty this summer as they spent tens of millions of dollars on attack ads. Scott has slammed McCollum as being a career politician who flip-flops on issues, and accused him of abusing his official powers for political gain.

McCollum claims that Scott can't be trusted since the healthcare company he led in the 1990s, Columbia/HCA, had to pay $1.7 billion in fines for Medicare fraud. More recently, McCollum has focused on doctors' allegations of illegal practices at another healthcare company in which Scott is a major investor. Scott has dismissed the allegations as political stunts and sour grapes by disgruntled former employees.

McCollum spokeswoman Kristy Campbell said Thursday, "I think the latest poll illustrates that voters have really had an opportunity to get a look at Rick Scott, beyond his $40 million in TV commercials, and they're not liking what they're seeing."

Scott spokesman Joe Kildea said, "We always knew that this race would get close in the final days, given team McCollum's dirty tricks and the millions that the special interests and Tallahassee insiders are spending attacking Rick Scott in their desperate attempts to hold on to power."

Sink, with little primary competition and few attacks since Scott jumped into the race in April, leads McCollum narrowly in a potential match-up, 37 percent to 35 percent. Independent candidate Lawton "Bud" Chiles III, son of the late Democratic governor Lawton Chiles, claims 13 percent, with 15 percent undecided. She has been able to save most of her campaign treasury while she waits for the general election.

Sink's odds of winning are much better against Scott, whom she leads 40 percent to 24 percent, with Chiles getting 17 percent and 19 percent undecided.

"Sink has overcome a 9-point deficit since May," Coker said. "Staying out of the fray has helped Sink increase her favorable recognition by 10 points while her negatives have remained at a relatively low 19 percent."

Both match-ups saw some Republicans favoring Sink over the GOP nominee, especially if she faces Scott.

But Daniel Smith, a political scientist at the University of Florida, said he doubts GOP voters will really vote for a Democrat. "The real question is, how many no-party affiliated voters are going to be turned off to the Republican nominee because of the nasty primary?"

As of July 26, the Division of Elections reported almost 2.2 million NPA voters registered in Florida.

One sign of Sink's support is in Tampa, where the local Police Benevolent Association is endorsing her despite its longstanding history of supporting Republicans.

"We're definitely getting out and telling people that Alex Sink is who we support and she should be the next governor," said Rick Cochran, senior vice president of the group of just under 1,000 members.

Mason-Dixon polled 625 registered voters and an over-sampling of 400 likely Republican primary voters for questions about that contest. Margin of error was plus or minus 4 percent, up to 5 percent for the Republican primary voter sample.